PHI @ DAL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
PHI Eagles
24
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
PHI60%24
DAL40%20
20
DAL Cowboys
BET VALUE
Lean PHI +1.5 +6.0 pts
MARKET DAL -1.5 · O/U 49.5

Projected Team Stats

PHI
DAL
60% Win Probability 40%
347 Total Yards 333
225 Passing Yards 228
122 Rushing Yards 105
2.7 Sacks 2.2
1.1 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts232 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley57 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.8 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Makai Lemon4.9 rec, 65 yds, 0.4 TD
DAL
PASS Dak Prescott247 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams56 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.4 rec, 64 yds, 0.2 TD
REC George Pickens4.7 rec, 60 yds, 0.3 TD

Eagles by 4.5

The model leans Eagles by 4.5, winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 24-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) vs Zack Baun (Eagles) - winner: Zack Baun, holding him to 19 yds on just 39% open, 0.2 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • DeVonta Smith (Eagles) vs Reddy Steward (Cowboys) - winner: DeVonta Smith, open on 63% of routes for 5.7/7.9, 54 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Eagles may have to manufacture pressure, winning 52% up front for 6.8 sacks a game (Jonathan Greenard (3.2 sacks, 9.9 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Cowboys may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.2 sacks a game — Rashan Gary (1.8 sacks, 6.9 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Eagles will live and die with DeVonta Smith, who comes open 63% of the time (54 yds a game).
  • CeeDee Lamb is the engine of the Cowboys' passing game — 51 yds a game on 43% separation.
  • Zack Baun (Eagles) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 30% of his coverage snaps — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Eagles' run game leans on Saquon Barkley — 13 carries, 57 yds a game (4.3 a carry), churning off right tackle.
  • Javonte Williams is the workhorse for the Cowboys, churning 56 yds a game at 4.5 a carry, finding room off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim linePHI -4.5
Market lineDAL -1.5
Sim total44
Market total49.5
PHI by 4.5 (60% to win) Projected total 44 pts Dak Prescott ~247 pass yds (250+ 48%) Saquon Barkley ~57 rush yds (70+ 24%) DeVonta Smith ~67 rec yds, 4.8 rec (70+ 36%)