PHI @ JAX Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PHI Eagles
19
PROJECTION
Week 5 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
PHI66%19
JAX34%16
16
JAX Jaguars
BET VALUE
MARKET PHI -2.5 · O/U 44.5

Projected Team Stats

PHI
JAX
66% Win Probability 34%
315 Total Yards 270
190 Passing Yards 192
125 Rushing Yards 78
2.9 Sacks 3.3
1.3 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts208 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley60 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Makai Lemon4.6 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.6 rec, 55 yds, 0.2 TD
JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence210 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten27 rush yds
REC Brian Thomas Jr.3.8 rec, 49 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Parker Washington2.8 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD

Eagles by 3.5

The model leans Eagles by 3.5, winning 66% of 50 sims (projected 19-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) - winner: Quinyon Mitchell, holding him to 32 yds on just 33% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) - winner: Jihaad Campbell, holding him to 2.5 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • Jalen Carter (Eagles) vs Robert Hainsey (Jaguars) - winner: Jalen Carter, winning 55% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 5.3 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
In the Trenches
  • The Jaguars' line should hold up: the Eagles win just 51% of their reps, mustering 5.7 sacks and 28.2 pressures a game, and Jonathan Greenard (2.4 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Jaguars — a 48% win rate yields only 6.3 sacks and 26.6 pressures a game, with Josh Hines-Allen (4.1 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • DeVonta Smith is the engine of the Eagles' passing game — 44 yds a game on 60% separation.
  • Brian Thomas Jr. is the engine of the Jaguars' passing game — 32 yds a game on 33% separation.
  • Cooper DeJean (Eagles) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 33% of routes — and 0.6 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Saquon Barkley sets the tempo for the Eagles — 60 yds a game on the ground at 4.2 a carry, finding room off right tackle.
  • Expect a steady diet of Bhayshul Tuten: 27 yds a game at 2.5 a carry for the Jaguars.

Model vs Market

Sim linePHI -3.5
Market linePHI -2.5
Sim total35
Market total44.5
PHI by 3.5 (66% to win) Projected total 35 pts Trevor Lawrence ~210 pass yds (250+ 22%) Saquon Barkley ~60 rush yds (70+ 18%) Makai Lemon ~56 rec yds, 4.6 rec (70+ 22%)