PHI @ NYG Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
PHI Eagles
25
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
PHI88%25
NYG12%13
13
NYG Giants
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take PHI -3 +9.2 pts
MARKET PHI -3 · O/U 41.5

Projected Team Stats

PHI
NYG
88% Win Probability 12%
385 Total Yards 251
244 Passing Yards 169
141 Rushing Yards 82
2.6 Sacks 2.5
1.0 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts243 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley66 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Makai Lemon5.4 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
REC DeVonta Smith5.2 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
NYG
PASS Jaxson Dart188 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo46 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Malik Nabers4.6 rec, 58 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Darius Slayton2.9 rec, 35 yds

Eagles by 12.2

Eagles are the pick here, favoured by 12.2 and winning 88% of 50 sims (projected 25-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Malik Nabers (Giants) vs Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) - winner: Quinyon Mitchell, holding him to 36 yds on just 40% open, 0.6 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Darius Slayton (Giants) vs Cooper DeJean (Eagles) - winner: Cooper DeJean, holding him to 18 yds on just 38% open, 0.6 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Makai Lemon (Eagles) vs Deonte Banks (Giants) - winner: Makai Lemon, open on 63% of routes for 5.4/7.4, 50 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • The Giants' line should hold up: the Eagles win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.8 sacks and 29.1 pressures a game (Jonathan Greenard (2.2 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Giants may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.3 sacks a game, and Brian Burns (2.6 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is DeVonta Smith's show for the Eagles: 52 yds a game, open on 60% of routes.
  • Look for Malik Nabers to eat: 5.2 catches and 36 yds a game for the Giants.
  • Few balls get past Cooper DeJean (Eagles), who yields separation on 34% of routes — and 0.6 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Eagles' run game leans on Saquon Barkley — 14 carries, 66 yds a game (4.6 a carry), with his best work off the right edge.
  • Cam Skattebo is the workhorse for the Giants, churning 46 yds a game at 3.7 a carry, finding room to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim linePHI -12.2
Market linePHI -3
Sim total37
Market total41.5
PHI by 12.2 (88% to win) Projected total 37 pts Jalen Hurts ~243 pass yds (250+ 40%) Saquon Barkley ~66 rush yds (70+ 38%) Makai Lemon ~76 rec yds, 5.4 rec (70+ 58%)