PHI @ SF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
PHI Eagles
27
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
PHI78%27
SF22%16
16
SF 49ers
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take PHI +1.5 +12.6 pts
MARKET SF -1.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

PHI
SF
78% Win Probability 22%
365 Total Yards 305
216 Passing Yards 204
150 Rushing Yards 101
3.5 Sacks 2.4
1.1 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts214 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley69 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Makai Lemon5.2 rec, 66 yds, 0.6 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.7 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD
SF
PASS Brock Purdy229 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey55 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Mike Evans4.4 rec, 53 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Jake Tonges2.5 rec, 41 yds, 0.2 TD

Eagles by 11.1

Eagles are the pick here, favoured by 11.1 and winning 78% of 50 sims (projected 27-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Mike Evans (49ers) vs Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) - winner: Quinyon Mitchell, holding him to 36 yds on just 33% open, 0.9 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
  • Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 4.8 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • DeVonta Smith (Eagles) vs Siran Neal (49ers) - winner: DeVonta Smith, open on 64% of routes for 6.1/7.9, 55 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Eagles may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 6.3 sacks a game — Jonathan Greenard (2.7 sacks, 9.3 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Eagles' quarterback should have time; the 49ers win just 48% of reps for 4.6 sacks a game, Nick Bosa (1.9 sacks, 4.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • DeVonta Smith headlines the Eagles' receiving corps — 6.1 catches for 55 yds a game on 64% separation.
  • Look for Mike Evans to eat: 4.6 catches and 36 yds a game for the 49ers.
  • On the back end, Quinyon Mitchell (Eagles) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 30% of routes — and 0.7 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Eagles ride Saquon Barkley: 14 carries, 69 yds a game (4.8 a carry), churning to the right side and controlling the clock.
  • Expect a steady diet of Christian McCaffrey: 55 yds a game at 3.8 a carry for the 49ers, doing his damage off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim linePHI -11.1
Market lineSF -1.5
Sim total42
Market total45.5
PHI by 11.1 (78% to win) Projected total 42 pts Brock Purdy ~229 pass yds (250+ 36%) Saquon Barkley ~69 rush yds (70+ 46%) Makai Lemon ~66 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 46%)