PHI @ TEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PHI Eagles
25
PROJECTION
Week 2 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
PHI88%25
TEN12%11
11
TEN Titans
BET VALUE
Lean PHI -4.5 +8.8 pts
MARKET PHI -4.5 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

PHI
TEN
88% Win Probability 12%
382 Total Yards 222
218 Passing Yards 149
165 Rushing Yards 73
4.4 Sacks 2.8
0.7 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts217 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley72 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.7 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Makai Lemon4.7 rec, 65 yds, 0.3 TD
TEN
PASS Cam Ward183 pass yds, 0.5 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard37 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Carnell Tate4.1 rec, 51 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson3.5 rec, 36 yds

Eagles by 13.3

The model leans Eagles by 13.3, winning 88% of 50 sims (projected 25-11).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Kevin Winston Jr. (Titans) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 5.3 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Cam Jurgens (Eagles) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 57% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 5.5 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
In the Trenches
  • The Titans' quarterback should have time; the Eagles win just 51% of reps for 7.6 sacks a game, Jonathan Greenard (3.5 sacks, 10.6 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Eagles' line should hold up: the Titans win just 49% of their reps, mustering 5.5 sacks and 25.3 pressures a game, and John Franklin-Myers (1.9 sacks, 6.6 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Eagles will live and die with DeVonta Smith, who comes open 55% of the time (50 yds a game).
  • The Titans lean on Carnell Tate, good for 5.0 catches and 36 yds a game while breaking open on 46% of his routes.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Zack Baun (Eagles): 36% separation allowed, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Saquon Barkley carries the load for the Eagles, 13 carries for 72 yds a game at 5.3 a carry, with his best work off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Titans' run game leans on Tony Pollard — 9 carries, 37 yds a game (4.0 a carry), with the holes opening off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim linePHI -13.3
Market linePHI -4.5
Sim total36
Market total42.5
PHI by 13.3 (88% to win) Projected total 36 pts Jalen Hurts ~217 pass yds (250+ 22%) Saquon Barkley ~72 rush yds (70+ 42%) DeVonta Smith ~67 rec yds, 4.7 rec (70+ 38%)