PHI @ WAS Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PHI Eagles
26
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
PHI80%26
WAS20%15
15
WAS Commanders
BET VALUE
Lean PHI -2.5 +8.4 pts
MARKET PHI -2.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

PHI
WAS
80% Win Probability 20%
418 Total Yards 234
247 Passing Yards 135
171 Rushing Yards 99
3.2 Sacks 2.7
1.0 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts244 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley71 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Makai Lemon4.9 rec, 76 yds, 0.5 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.7 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD
WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels159 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt54 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Terry McLaurin3.4 rec, 45 yds
REC Antonio Williams3.2 rec, 32 yds

Eagles by 10.9

Across 50 simulations, Eagles come out on top 80% of the time by an average of 10.9 (26-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Saquon Barkley, 5.4 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Jalen Carter (Eagles) vs Nick Allegretti (Commanders) - winner: Jalen Carter, winning 55% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 5.2 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Eagles — a 50% win rate yields only 6.4 sacks and 26.9 pressures a game, with Jonathan Greenard (2.6 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Eagles' line should hold up: the Commanders win just 50% of their reps, mustering 5.4 sacks and 25.2 pressures a game — Odafe Oweh (3.0 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is DeVonta Smith's show for the Eagles: 54 yds a game, open on 58% of routes.
  • The Commanders lean on Terry McLaurin, good for 4.7 catches and 32 yds a game while breaking open on 45% of his routes.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Zack Baun (Eagles): 32% separation allowed, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Eagles hand it to Saquon Barkley early and often, 13 carries for 71 yds a game at 5.4 a carry, finding room off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Commanders' run game leans on Jacory Croskey-Merritt — 13 carries, 54 yds a game (4.3 a carry), with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim linePHI -10.9
Market linePHI -2.5
Sim total41
Market total46.5
PHI by 10.9 (80% to win) Projected total 41 pts Jalen Hurts ~244 pass yds (250+ 40%) Saquon Barkley ~71 rush yds (70+ 42%) Makai Lemon ~76 rec yds, 4.9 rec (70+ 56%)