PIT @ BLT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
PIT Steelers
18
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
PIT64%18
BLT36%14
14
BLT Ravens
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take PIT +5.5 +9.9 pts
MARKET BLT -5.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

PIT
BLT
64% Win Probability 36%
310 Total Yards 255
225 Passing Yards 144
85 Rushing Yards 110
3.3 Sacks 1.4
1.0 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers227 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren51 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.0 rec, 58 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Germie Bernard4.6 rec, 51 yds, 0.2 TD
BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson168 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry69 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Zay Flowers3.7 rec, 47 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.1 rec, 26 yds

Steelers by 4.4

Across 50 simulations, Steelers come out on top 64% of the time by an average of 4.4 (18-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Trey Hendrickson (Ravens) vs Troy Fautanu (Steelers) - winner: Trey Hendrickson, winning 55% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 2.4 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Steelers — a 52% win rate, 5.5 sacks and 27.0 pressures a game, and T.J. Watt (1.8 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Ravens get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (2.9 sacks a game), Trey Hendrickson (1.5 sacks, 2.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • The Steelers' aerial attack runs through D.K. Metcalf (33 yds a game, open on 47% of routes).
  • Look for Zay Flowers to eat: 4.8 catches and 37 yds a game for the Ravens.
  • On the back end, Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 33% of routes with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Steelers hand it to Jaylen Warren early and often, 13 carries for 51 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, churning off the right edge.
  • The Ravens' run game leans on Derrick Henry — 15 carries, 69 yds a game (4.6 a carry), with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim linePIT -4.4
Market lineBLT -5.5
Sim total32
Market total43.5
PIT by 4.4 (64% to win) Projected total 32 pts Aaron Rodgers ~227 pass yds (250+ 28%) Derrick Henry ~69 rush yds (70+ 48%) D.K. Metcalf ~58 rec yds, 5.0 rec (70+ 32%)