PIT @ BLT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
PIT Steelers
15
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
PIT38%15
BLT62%20
20
BLT Ravens

Projected Team Stats

PIT
BLT
38% Win Probability 62%
290 Total Yards 319
210 Passing Yards 197
80 Rushing Yards 122
2.7 Sacks 2.0
1.5 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers220 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren56 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.1 rec, 58 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Roman Wilson2.7 rec, 34 yds, 0.1 TD
BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson213 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry58 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Zay Flowers5.3 rec, 77 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Rashod Bateman3.1 rec, 44 yds, 0.1 TD

Ravens by 4.5

The model leans Ravens by 4.5, winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 20-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 4.6 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs Jamel Dean (Steelers) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 62% of routes for 6.5/8.2, 65 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • The Ravens get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (3.8 sacks a game), led by Nnamdi Madubuike (2.5 sacks, 0.0 pressures a game).
  • The Ravens' line should hold up: the Steelers win just 51% of their reps, mustering 5.3 sacks and 28.9 pressures a game, and T.J. Watt (1.9 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Ravens to feed Zay Flowers: 6.5 catches for 65 yds a game, open 62% of the time.
  • D.K. Metcalf is the go-to for the Steelers, separating on 44% of routes for 37 yds a game.
  • Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 39% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Ravens lean on Derrick Henry, 16 carries for 58 yds a game at 3.5 a carry, finding room off right tackle.
  • Jaylen Warren carries the load for the Steelers, 12 carries for 56 yds a game at 4.6 a carry, with his best work to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

BLT by 4.5 (62% to win) Projected total 35 pts Aaron Rodgers ~220 pass yds (250+ 28%) Derrick Henry ~58 rush yds (70+ 24%) Zay Flowers ~77 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 46%)