PIT @ CIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PIT Steelers
22
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
PIT40%22
CIN60%24
24
CIN Bengals
BET VALUE
MARKET CIN -3.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

PIT
CIN
40% Win Probability 60%
380 Total Yards 343
268 Passing Yards 298
112 Rushing Yards 45
2.6 Sacks 1.7
1.7 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers270 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren78 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf6.6 rec, 80 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Germie Bernard5.6 rec, 64 yds, 0.2 TD
CIN
PASS Joe Burrow308 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Chase Brown31 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase6.8 rec, 83 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tee Higgins5.0 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD

Bengals by 1.6

Bengals are the pick here, favoured by 1.6 and winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 24-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.5 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Jalen Ramsey (Steelers) - winner: Jalen Ramsey, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
  • Nick Herbig (Steelers) vs Orlando Brown Jr. (Bengals) - winner: Nick Herbig, winning 56% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 4.1 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
In the Trenches
  • The Steelers' line should hold up: the Bengals win just 51% of their reps, mustering 3.2 sacks and 10.7 pressures a game, and Dexter Lawrence (2.4 sacks, 0.1 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Steelers — a 51% win rate yields only 5.7 sacks and 24.5 pressures a game, with T.J. Watt (1.5 sacks, 9.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Ja'Marr Chase is the go-to for the Bengals, separating on 54% of routes for 75 yds a game.
  • The Steelers will live and die with D.K. Metcalf, who comes open 41% of the time (45 yds a game).
  • On the back end, Bryan Cook (Bengals) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 34% of routes, good for 0.5 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bengals lean on Chase Brown, 10 carries for 31 yds a game at 2.9 a carry.
  • Jaylen Warren carries the load for the Steelers, 14 carries for 78 yds a game at 5.5 a carry, with his best work to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCIN -1.6
Market lineCIN -3.5
Sim total45
Market total47.5
CIN by 1.6 (60% to win) Projected total 45 pts Joe Burrow ~308 pass yds (250+ 72%) Jaylen Warren ~78 rush yds (70+ 50%) Ja'Marr Chase ~83 rec yds, 6.8 rec (70+ 50%)