PIT @ CIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PIT Steelers
21
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
PIT50%21
CIN50%22
22
CIN Bengals

Projected Team Stats

PIT
CIN
50% Win Probability 50%
384 Total Yards 344
266 Passing Yards 303
118 Rushing Yards 42
2.0 Sacks 1.8
1.6 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers277 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren78 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.7 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Roman Wilson3.8 rec, 50 yds, 0.2 TD
CIN
PASS Joe Burrow307 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Chase Brown25 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase6.9 rec, 89 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tee Higgins5.1 rec, 76 yds, 0.5 TD

Bengals by 1.4

Bengals are the pick here, favoured by 1.4 and winning 50% of 50 sims (projected 22-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Bryan Cook (Bengals) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 6.2 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Chase Brown (Bengals) vs Asante Samuel Jr. (Steelers) - winner: Asante Samuel Jr., holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
In the Trenches
  • The Steelers' line should hold up: the Bengals win just 51% of their reps, mustering 3.6 sacks and 13.1 pressures a game, and Myles Murphy (0.8 sacks, 5.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Steelers — a 52% win rate yields only 3.8 sacks and 10.8 pressures a game, with Alex Highsmith (0.6 sacks, 4.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Ja'Marr Chase is the go-to for the Bengals, separating on 57% of routes for 80 yds a game.
  • The Steelers will live and die with D.K. Metcalf, who comes open 43% of the time (39 yds a game).
  • On the back end, DJ Turner II (Bengals) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 39% of routes, good for 1.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bengals lean on Chase Brown, 11 carries for 25 yds a game at 2.2 a carry.
  • Jaylen Warren carries the load for the Steelers, 13 carries for 78 yds a game at 6.2 a carry, with his best work to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.

Model vs Market

CIN by 1.4 (50% to win) Projected total 43 pts Joe Burrow ~307 pass yds (250+ 82%) Jaylen Warren ~78 rush yds (70+ 44%) Ja'Marr Chase ~89 rec yds, 6.9 rec (70+ 66%)