PIT @ CLV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PIT Steelers
21
PROJECTION
Week 4 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
PIT84%21
CLV16%10
10
CLV Browns
BET VALUE
Lean PIT -2.5 +8.3 pts
MARKET PIT -2.5 · O/U 40.5

Projected Team Stats

PIT
CLV
84% Win Probability 16%
334 Total Yards 193
242 Passing Yards 135
91 Rushing Yards 57
3.0 Sacks 1.3
1.2 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers234 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren56 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.8 rec, 74 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Germie Bernard4.7 rec, 50 yds, 0.3 TD
CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson158 pass yds, 0.5 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins35 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jerry Jeudy3.4 rec, 40 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Denzel Boston3.2 rec, 39 yds, 0.1 TD

Steelers by 10.8

The model leans Steelers by 10.8, winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 21-10).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jerry Jeudy (Browns) vs Joey Porter Jr. (Steelers) - winner: Joey Porter Jr., holding him to 24 yds on just 32% open, 0.8 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Jalen Ramsey (Steelers) - winner: Jalen Ramsey, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Steelers — a 51% win rate yields only 5.2 sacks and 25.0 pressures a game, with T.J. Watt (2.1 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Browns — a 51% win rate, 2.6 sacks and 8.9 pressures a game — Jared Verse (0.5 sacks, 4.6 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Steelers to feed D.K. Metcalf: 5.3 catches for 48 yds a game, open 52% of the time.
  • The Browns lean on Jerry Jeudy, good for 2.9 catches and 24 yds a game while breaking open on 32% of his routes.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Joey Porter Jr. (Steelers): 32% separation allowed, good for 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Steelers ride Jaylen Warren: 13 carries, 56 yds a game (4.3 a carry), doing his damage to the right side.
  • Quinshon Judkins sets the tempo for the Browns — 35 yds a game on the ground at 2.7 a carry into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim linePIT -10.8
Market linePIT -2.5
Sim total31
Market total40.5
PIT by 10.8 (84% to win) Projected total 31 pts Aaron Rodgers ~234 pass yds (250+ 38%) Jaylen Warren ~56 rush yds (70+ 26%) D.K. Metcalf ~74 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 54%)