PIT @ CLV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PIT Steelers
21
PROJECTION
PIT 24 – CLV 27
Week 4 50-sim average Thu 1 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
PIT84%21 24
CLV16%10 27
10
CLV Browns
✗ RESULT CLV by 3 model PIT by 11.0, off by 14.0
✗ VALUE PIT -2.5 LOSS line at publish PIT -2.5
✗ TOTAL 51 pts OVER O/U 38.5, model 31 lean under

Projected Team Stats

PIT
CLV
84% Win Probability 16%
334 Total Yards 192
235 Passing Yards 144
99 Rushing Yards 48
3.0 Sacks 2.3
1.4 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers238 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren63 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.7 rec, 67 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Michael Pittman Jr.4.5 rec, 53 yds, 0.2 TD
CLV
PASS Deshaun Watson166 pass yds, 0.5 TD
RUSH Quinshon Judkins25 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Denzel Boston4.6 rec, 63 yds, 0.2 TD
REC KC Concepcion3.4 rec, 32 yds

Steelers by 11.0

Run it 50 times and Steelers win 84% of them, by 11.0 on average (21-10).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs Jaquan Brisker (Steelers) - winner: Jaquan Brisker, holding him to 2.1 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • Jared Verse (Browns) vs Max Iheanachor (Steelers) - winner: Jared Verse, winning 57% of reps for 3.4 sacks and 6.2 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Grant Delpit (Browns) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.2 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
In the Trenches
  • The Steelers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.6 sacks a game — T.J. Watt (2.1 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Browns — a 50% win rate yields only 4.4 sacks and 13.8 pressures a game, Jared Verse (3.4 sacks, 6.2 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • D.K. Metcalf headlines the Steelers' receiving corps — 5.4 catches for 37 yds a game on 41% separation.
  • Denzel Boston should find soft spots all day, open 43% of the time for 42 yds a game.
  • On the back end, Jamel Dean (Steelers) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 38% of routes with 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Jaylen Warren: 63 yds a game at 5.2 a carry for the Steelers, churning to the right side.
  • Quinshon Judkins carries the load for the Browns, 12 carries for 25 yds a game at 2.1 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim linePIT -11.0
Market linePIT -2.5
Sim total31
Market total38.5
PIT by 11.0 (84% to win) Projected total 31 pts Aaron Rodgers ~238 pass yds (250+ 44%) Jaylen Warren ~63 rush yds (70+ 32%) D.K. Metcalf ~67 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 48%)