PIT @ JAX Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
PIT Steelers
19
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
PIT52%19
JAX48%19
19
JAX Jaguars
BET VALUE
MARKET JAX -3 · O/U 44.5

Projected Team Stats

PIT
JAX
52% Win Probability 48%
328 Total Yards 278
242 Passing Yards 204
86 Rushing Yards 74
2.7 Sacks 1.5
1.6 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers248 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren56 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.8 rec, 68 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Germie Bernard4.8 rec, 54 yds, 0.3 TD
JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence216 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten27 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr.4.1 rec, 58 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jakobi Meyers3.5 rec, 43 yds, 0.2 TD

Jaguars by 0.0

Jaguars are the pick here, favoured by 0.0 and winning 48% of 50 sims (projected 19-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Josh Hines-Allen (Jaguars) vs Broderick Jones (Steelers) - winner: Josh Hines-Allen, winning 56% of reps for 3.4 sacks and 6.3 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs Jalen Ramsey (Steelers) - winner: Jalen Ramsey, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Nick Herbig (Steelers) vs Anton Harrison (Jaguars) - winner: Nick Herbig, winning 55% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 3.1 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
In the Trenches
  • The Jaguars may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 3.7 sacks a game, and Josh Hines-Allen (3.4 sacks, 6.3 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Jaguars' quarterback should have time; the Steelers win just 51% of reps for 5.5 sacks a game, led by T.J. Watt (1.5 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Brian Thomas Jr. is the engine of the Jaguars' passing game — 36 yds a game on 41% separation.
  • Look for D.K. Metcalf to eat: 6.2 catches and 42 yds a game for the Steelers.
  • On the back end, Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 29% of routes with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Bhayshul Tuten: 27 yds a game at 2.6 a carry for the Jaguars.
  • Jaylen Warren is the workhorse for the Steelers, churning 56 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineJAX -0.0
Market lineJAX -3
Sim total39
Market total44.5
JAX by 0.0 (48% to win) Projected total 39 pts Aaron Rodgers ~248 pass yds (250+ 46%) Jaylen Warren ~56 rush yds (70+ 22%) D.K. Metcalf ~68 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 44%)