PIT @ JAX Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PIT Steelers
18
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
PIT42%18
JAX58%20
20
JAX Jaguars

Projected Team Stats

PIT
JAX
42% Win Probability 58%
326 Total Yards 324
238 Passing Yards 243
88 Rushing Yards 80
1.7 Sacks 1.7
1.6 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers245 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren58 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf6.4 rec, 78 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Roman Wilson3.2 rec, 38 yds, 0.1 TD
JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence249 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten44 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Parker Washington5.6 rec, 84 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jakobi Meyers3.6 rec, 44 yds, 0.2 TD

Jaguars by 2.3

Jaguars are the pick here, favoured by 2.3 and winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 20-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Foyesade Oluokun (Jaguars) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 4.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Parker Washington (Jaguars) vs Jamel Dean (Steelers) - winner: Parker Washington, open on 58% of routes for 7.0/8.9, 71 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Jaguars — a 50% win rate yields only 3.5 sacks and 12.4 pressures a game, with Josh Hines-Allen (2.9 sacks, 6.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Steelers — a 51% win rate, 4.1 sacks and 20.4 pressures a game (Alex Highsmith (1.3 sacks, 6.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Jaguars will live and die with Parker Washington, who comes open 58% of the time (71 yds a game).
  • Expect the Steelers to feed D.K. Metcalf: 6.0 catches for 44 yds a game, open 45% of the time.
  • Ventrell Miller (Jaguars) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 39% of routes, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Jaguars ride Bhayshul Tuten: 13 carries, 44 yds a game (3.5 a carry), churning off the right edge.
  • The Steelers' run game leans on Jaylen Warren — 12 carries, 58 yds a game (4.7 a carry), with his best work off the right edge and moving the chains.

Model vs Market

JAX by 2.3 (58% to win) Projected total 38 pts Trevor Lawrence ~249 pass yds (250+ 42%) Jaylen Warren ~58 rush yds (70+ 28%) Parker Washington ~84 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 64%)