PIT @ NE Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PIT Steelers
19
PROJECTION
PIT 3 – NE 20
Week 2 50-sim average Sun 20 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
PIT50%19 3
NE50%18 20
18
NE Patriots
✗ RESULT NE by 17 model PIT by 1.1, off by 18.1
✗ VALUE PIT +5.5 LOSS line at publish NE -5.5
✓ TOTAL 23 pts UNDER O/U 41.5, model 37 lean under

Projected Team Stats

PIT
NE
50% Win Probability 50%
339 Total Yards 292
243 Passing Yards 189
96 Rushing Yards 103
3.6 Sacks 2.3
1.5 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers252 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren62 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf6.4 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Michael Pittman Jr.5.0 rec, 51 yds, 0.3 TD
NE
PASS Drake Maye213 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson45 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Romeo Doubs5.1 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Demario Douglas2.7 rec, 32 yds, 0.1 TD

Steelers by 1.1

The sim sides with Steelers: a 1.1-point edge and a 50% win rate over 50 runs (19-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 43 yds on just 33% open, 1.1 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
  • Michael Pittman Jr. (Steelers) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 25 yds on just 38% open, 0.7 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
  • Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Spencer Anderson (Steelers) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 57% of reps for 3.2 sacks and 1.1 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Cameron Heyward (Steelers) vs Jared Wilson (Patriots) - winner: Cameron Heyward, winning 55% of reps for 1.0 sacks and 5.2 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • The Patriots' line should hold up: the Steelers win just 51% of their reps, mustering 7.3 sacks and 30.1 pressures a game, and T.J. Watt (2.6 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Steelers' line should hold up: the Patriots win just 51% of their reps, mustering 4.6 sacks and 11.8 pressures a game, and Cory Durden (3.2 sacks, 1.1 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Steelers lean on D.K. Metcalf, good for 5.7 catches and 43 yds a game while breaking open on 33% of his routes.
  • Romeo Doubs should find soft spots all day, open 41% of the time for 41 yds a game.
  • Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 32% of routes with 1.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jaylen Warren carries the load for the Steelers, 15 carries for 62 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, churning off the right edge.
  • On the ground, the Patriots ride Rhamondre Stevenson: 11 carries, 45 yds a game (3.9 a carry), doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim linePIT -1.1
Market lineNE -5.5
Sim total37
Market total41.5
PIT by 1.1 (50% to win) Projected total 37 pts Aaron Rodgers ~252 pass yds (250+ 46%) Jaylen Warren ~62 rush yds (70+ 30%) D.K. Metcalf ~76 rec yds, 6.4 rec (70+ 60%)