PIT @ NE Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PIT Steelers
17
PROJECTION
Week 2 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
PIT50%17
NE50%19
19
NE Patriots
BET VALUE
MARKET NE -4.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

PIT
NE
50% Win Probability 50%
320 Total Yards 290
229 Passing Yards 181
92 Rushing Yards 109
4.1 Sacks 2.0
1.6 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers236 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren56 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf6.2 rec, 71 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Germie Bernard5.1 rec, 50 yds, 0.2 TD
NE
PASS Drake Maye205 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Rhamondre Stevenson51 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC A.J. Brown4.5 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Romeo Doubs3.0 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD

Patriots by 2.4

Run it 50 times and Patriots win 50% of them, by 2.4 on average (19-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) vs Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) - winner: Christian Gonzalez, holding him to 38 yds on just 36% open, 1.3 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
  • Michael Pittman Jr. (Steelers) vs Marcus Jones (Patriots) - winner: Marcus Jones, holding him to 23 yds on just 40% open, 0.7 INT a game, - blanket coverage.
  • Germie Bernard (Steelers) vs Carlton Davis III (Patriots) - winner: Carlton Davis III, holding him to 19 yds on just 36% open, 0.5 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Nick Herbig (Steelers) vs James Hudson III (Patriots) - winner: Nick Herbig, winning 62% of reps for 1.9 sacks and 3.6 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Cory Durden (Patriots) vs Mason McCormick (Steelers) - winner: Cory Durden, winning 57% of reps for 3.0 sacks and 0.1 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • The Steelers' line should hold up: the Patriots win just 52% of their reps, mustering 4.2 sacks and 9.9 pressures a game — Cory Durden (3.0 sacks, 0.1 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Steelers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (7.7 sacks a game), led by T.J. Watt (2.8 sacks, 9.6 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Expect the Patriots to feed A.J. Brown: 5.7 catches for 49 yds a game, open 46% of the time.
  • Through the air it is D.K. Metcalf's show for the Steelers: 38 yds a game, open on 36% of routes.
  • Christian Gonzalez (Patriots) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 33% of his coverage snaps, adding 1.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Rhamondre Stevenson sets the tempo for the Patriots — 51 yds a game on the ground at 4.3 a carry, finding room off the right edge.
  • The Steelers hand it to Jaylen Warren early and often, 14 carries for 56 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNE -2.4
Market lineNE -4.5
Sim total36
Market total43.5
NE by 2.4 (50% to win) Projected total 36 pts Aaron Rodgers ~236 pass yds (250+ 38%) Jaylen Warren ~56 rush yds (70+ 26%) D.K. Metcalf ~71 rec yds, 6.2 rec (70+ 54%)