PIT @ NO Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PIT Steelers
19
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
PIT54%19
NO46%19
19
NO Saints
BET VALUE
MARKET PIT -2.5 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

PIT
NO
54% Win Probability 46%
347 Total Yards 281
250 Passing Yards 223
97 Rushing Yards 58
2.1 Sacks 1.6
1.5 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers254 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren61 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.9 rec, 75 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Germie Bernard4.9 rec, 53 yds, 0.2 TD
NO
PASS Tyler Shough234 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.34 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Chris Olave6.6 rec, 86 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jordyn Tyson4.0 rec, 47 yds, 0.2 TD

Steelers by 0.4

Across 50 simulations, Steelers come out on top 54% of the time by an average of 0.4 (19-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chase Young (Saints) vs Broderick Jones (Steelers) - winner: Chase Young, winning 56% of reps for 3.1 sacks and 5.6 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Nick Herbig (Steelers) vs Taliese Fuaga (Saints) - winner: Nick Herbig, winning 57% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 2.9 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
In the Trenches
  • The Steelers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 4.1 sacks a game, and T.J. Watt (0.9 sacks, 5.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Saints may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 3.5 sacks a game, and Chase Young (3.1 sacks, 5.6 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Steelers lean on D.K. Metcalf, good for 6.0 catches and 49 yds a game while breaking open on 48% of his routes.
  • The Saints' aerial attack runs through Chris Olave (69 yds a game, open on 46% of routes).
  • On the back end, Joey Porter Jr. (Steelers) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 42% of routes with 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Steelers hand it to Jaylen Warren early and often, 14 carries for 61 yds a game at 4.3 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.
  • Travis Etienne Jr. is the workhorse for the Saints, churning 34 yds a game at 3.3 a carry.

Model vs Market

Sim linePIT -0.4
Market linePIT -2.5
Sim total38
Market total42.5
PIT by 0.4 (54% to win) Projected total 38 pts Aaron Rodgers ~254 pass yds (250+ 48%) Jaylen Warren ~61 rush yds (70+ 24%) Chris Olave ~86 rec yds, 6.6 rec (70+ 62%)