PIT @ PHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PIT Steelers
17
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
PIT40%17
PHI60%20
20
PHI Eagles
BET VALUE
MARKET PHI -5.5 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

PIT
PHI
40% Win Probability 60%
302 Total Yards 296
202 Passing Yards 199
100 Rushing Yards 96
3.4 Sacks 1.8
1.6 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers213 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren65 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.2 rec, 57 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Germie Bernard4.3 rec, 46 yds, 0.3 TD
PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts214 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley43 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC DeVonta Smith4.4 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Makai Lemon4.8 rec, 62 yds, 0.3 TD

Eagles by 2.8

Across 50 simulations, Eagles come out on top 60% of the time by an average of 2.8 (20-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 4.8 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • The Eagles may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 3.5 sacks a game — Jonathan Greenard (0.8 sacks, 4.7 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Steelers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.9 sacks a game), with T.J. Watt (1.8 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Eagles' aerial attack runs through DeVonta Smith (51 yds a game, open on 51% of routes).
  • D.K. Metcalf headlines the Steelers' receiving corps — 4.9 catches for 35 yds a game on 40% separation.
  • On the back end, Cooper DeJean (Eagles) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 34% of routes — and 0.7 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Eagles' run game leans on Saquon Barkley — 12 carries, 43 yds a game (3.7 a carry), churning off right tackle.
  • The Steelers lean on Jaylen Warren, 14 carries for 65 yds a game at 4.8 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim linePHI -2.8
Market linePHI -5.5
Sim total37
Market total42.5
PHI by 2.8 (60% to win) Projected total 37 pts Jalen Hurts ~214 pass yds (250+ 24%) Jaylen Warren ~65 rush yds (70+ 32%) DeVonta Smith ~63 rec yds, 4.4 rec (70+ 40%)