PIT @ TB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 6 slate
PIT Steelers
23
PROJECTION
Week 6 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
PIT72%23
TB28%15
15
TB Buccaneers
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take PIT +1.5 +9.1 pts
MARKET TB -1.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

PIT
TB
72% Win Probability 28%
357 Total Yards 257
259 Passing Yards 184
98 Rushing Yards 73
2.1 Sacks 1.5
1.5 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers257 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren59 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.7 rec, 72 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Germie Bernard5.1 rec, 57 yds, 0.3 TD
TB
PASS Baker Mayfield200 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Baker Mayfield27 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.7 rec, 52 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka3.0 rec, 41 yds, 0.2 TD

Steelers by 7.6

The model leans Steelers by 7.6, winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 23-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Jalen Ramsey (Steelers) - winner: Jalen Ramsey, holding him to 2.0 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Yaya Diaby (Buccaneers) vs Troy Fautanu (Steelers) - winner: Yaya Diaby, winning 55% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 2.7 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Cameron Heyward (Steelers) vs Graham Barton (Buccaneers) - winner: Cameron Heyward, winning 56% of reps for 0.8 sacks and 4.2 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Nick Herbig (Steelers) vs Luke Goedeke (Buccaneers) - winner: Nick Herbig, winning 55% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 2.9 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
In the Trenches
  • The Steelers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 51% of reps (4.4 sacks a game), T.J. Watt (1.5 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Buccaneers — a 50% win rate, 3.1 sacks and 8.3 pressures a game — Yaya Diaby (1.5 sacks, 2.7 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Steelers lean on D.K. Metcalf, good for 5.8 catches and 44 yds a game while breaking open on 50% of his routes.
  • Chris Godwin is the go-to for the Buccaneers, separating on 44% of routes for 40 yds a game.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Jamel Dean (Steelers): 37% separation allowed, adding 0.5 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Jaylen Warren: 59 yds a game at 4.5 a carry for the Steelers, doing his damage off right tackle.
  • The Buccaneers hand it to Bucky Irving early and often, 12 carries for 24 yds a game at 2.0 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim linePIT -7.6
Market lineTB -1.5
Sim total38
Market total45.5
PIT by 7.6 (72% to win) Projected total 38 pts Aaron Rodgers ~257 pass yds (250+ 50%) Jaylen Warren ~59 rush yds (70+ 30%) D.K. Metcalf ~72 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 52%)