PIT @ TB Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PIT Steelers
24
PROJECTION
PIT 26 – TB 19
Week 6 50-sim average Sun 18 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
PIT80%24 26
TB20%14 19
14
TB Buccaneers
✓ RESULT PIT by 7 model PIT by 9.9, off by 2.9
✓ VALUE PIT -2.5 WIN line at publish PIT -2.5
✗ TOTAL 45 pts OVER O/U 40.5, model 39 lean under

Projected Team Stats

PIT
TB
80% Win Probability 20%
362 Total Yards 267
260 Passing Yards 191
102 Rushing Yards 76
2.7 Sacks 1.7
1.2 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers256 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren62 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf6.3 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Roman Wilson3.5 rec, 47 yds, 0.3 TD
TB
PASS Baker Mayfield208 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving41 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka4.7 rec, 63 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.3 rec, 43 yds, 0.2 TD

Steelers by 9.9

The model leans Steelers by 9.9, winning 80% of 50 sims (projected 24-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.2 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Steelers — a 50% win rate, 4.8 sacks and 30.3 pressures a game — Alex Highsmith (1.8 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Steelers' quarterback should have time; the Buccaneers win just 50% of reps for 3.8 sacks a game, Yaya Diaby (0.6 sacks, 4.9 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • D.K. Metcalf should find soft spots all day, open 45% of the time for 48 yds a game.
  • Emeka Egbuka should find soft spots all day, open 41% of the time for 50 yds a game.
  • Jamel Dean (Steelers) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 33% of routes — and 0.6 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Steelers ride Jaylen Warren: 12 carries, 62 yds a game (5.2 a carry), doing his damage to the right side and controlling the clock.
  • On the ground, the Buccaneers ride Bucky Irving: 12 carries, 41 yds a game (3.5 a carry), with his best work off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim linePIT -9.9
Market linePIT -2.5
Sim total39
Market total40.5
PIT by 9.9 (80% to win) Projected total 39 pts Aaron Rodgers ~256 pass yds (250+ 54%) Jaylen Warren ~62 rush yds (70+ 32%) D.K. Metcalf ~80 rec yds, 6.3 rec (70+ 52%)