PIT @ TEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PIT Steelers
27
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
PIT92%27
TEN8%11
11
TEN Titans

Projected Team Stats

PIT
TEN
92% Win Probability 8%
375 Total Yards 230
253 Passing Yards 185
122 Rushing Yards 45
3.6 Sacks 1.6
0.9 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers239 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren78 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.9 rec, 78 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Roman Wilson3.1 rec, 41 yds, 0.2 TD
TEN
PASS Cam Ward211 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard23 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Carnell Tate5.1 rec, 62 yds
REC Wan'Dale Robinson3.5 rec, 40 yds

Steelers by 15.9

Run it 50 times and Steelers win 92% of them, by 15.9 on average (27-11).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Owen Pappoe (Titans) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 6.9 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Asante Samuel Jr. (Steelers) - winner: Asante Samuel Jr., holding him to 2.3 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • Keeanu Benton (Steelers) vs Atonio Mafi (Titans) - winner: Keeanu Benton, winning 57% of reps for 1.0 sacks and 6.5 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Zach Frazier (Steelers) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 55% of reps for 2.2 sacks and 0.4 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • The Titans' quarterback should have time; the Steelers win just 51% of reps for 6.8 sacks a game, T.J. Watt (2.4 sacks, 9.3 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Steelers' line should hold up: the Titans win just 50% of their reps, mustering 3.5 sacks and 10.9 pressures a game, and John Franklin-Myers (0.6 sacks, 4.6 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • D.K. Metcalf is the go-to for the Steelers, separating on 49% of routes for 52 yds a game.
  • Through the air it is Carnell Tate's show for the Titans: 40 yds a game, open on 44% of routes.
  • Jamel Dean (Steelers) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 39% of routes, good for 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jaylen Warren carries the load for the Steelers, 11 carries for 78 yds a game at 6.9 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Expect a steady diet of Tony Pollard: 23 yds a game at 2.3 a carry for the Titans.

Model vs Market

PIT by 15.9 (92% to win) Projected total 38 pts Aaron Rodgers ~239 pass yds (250+ 36%) Jaylen Warren ~78 rush yds (70+ 50%) D.K. Metcalf ~78 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 54%)