PIT @ TEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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PIT Steelers
25
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
PIT82%25
TEN18%13
13
TEN Titans
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take PIT -1.5 +10.2 pts
MARKET PIT -1.5 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

PIT
TEN
82% Win Probability 18%
353 Total Yards 241
239 Passing Yards 176
114 Rushing Yards 65
4.3 Sacks 1.7
1.0 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

PIT
PASS Aaron Rodgers234 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jaylen Warren71 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC D.K. Metcalf5.7 rec, 73 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Germie Bernard4.2 rec, 51 yds, 0.2 TD
TEN
PASS Cam Ward209 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard33 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Carnell Tate4.1 rec, 56 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson4.3 rec, 46 yds, 0.2 TD

Steelers by 11.7

Across 50 simulations, Steelers come out on top 82% of the time by an average of 11.7 (25-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs Kevin Winston Jr. (Titans) - winner: Jaylen Warren, 5.3 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Nick Herbig (Steelers) vs JC Latham (Titans) - winner: Nick Herbig, winning 55% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 4.3 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Zach Frazier (Steelers) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 55% of reps for 2.5 sacks and 0.0 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Steelers — a 51% win rate, 7.5 sacks and 36.3 pressures a game — T.J. Watt (2.7 sacks, 10.6 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Steelers' quarterback should have time; the Titans win just 49% of reps for 3.3 sacks a game, with Jeffery Simmons (2.5 sacks, 0.0 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • D.K. Metcalf is the engine of the Steelers' passing game — 42 yds a game on 45% separation.
  • The Titans' aerial attack runs through Carnell Tate (45 yds a game, open on 50% of routes).
  • Few balls get past Joshua Williams (Titans), who yields separation on 40% of routes.
On the Ground
  • The Steelers' run game leans on Jaylen Warren — 13 carries, 71 yds a game (5.3 a carry), finding room off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • The Titans hand it to Tony Pollard early and often, 10 carries for 33 yds a game at 3.4 a carry, churning to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim linePIT -11.7
Market linePIT -1.5
Sim total38
Market total42.5
PIT by 11.7 (82% to win) Projected total 38 pts Aaron Rodgers ~234 pass yds (250+ 32%) Jaylen Warren ~71 rush yds (70+ 38%) D.K. Metcalf ~73 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 42%)