SEA @ ARZ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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SEA Seahawks
29
PROJECTION
Week 2 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
SEA86%29
ARZ14%17
17
ARZ Cardinals
BET VALUE
MARKET SEA -10 · O/U 44.5

Projected Team Stats

SEA
ARZ
86% Win Probability 14%
399 Total Yards 310
257 Passing Yards 232
142 Rushing Yards 78
4.1 Sacks 1.8
1.3 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

SEA
PASS Sam Darnold253 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet78 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Cooper Kupp5.3 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba5.2 rec, 70 yds, 0.4 TD
ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett262 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love43 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.5.5 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Michael Wilson4.9 rec, 60 yds, 0.3 TD

Seahawks by 12.1

Across 50 simulations, Seahawks come out on top 86% of the time by an average of 12.1 (29-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals) vs Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) - winner: Devon Witherspoon, holding him to 43 yds on just 39% open, 0.9 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Julian Love (Seahawks) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 5.7 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks) vs Owen Pappoe (Cardinals) - winner: Zach Charbonnet, 4.7 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Garrett Williams (Cardinals) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 64% of routes for 6.2/7.9, 60 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Seahawks — a 50% win rate yields only 7.3 sacks and 35.7 pressures a game, led by Uchenna Nwosu (2.1 sacks, 10.0 pressures a game).
  • The Seahawks' line should hold up: the Cardinals win just 51% of their reps, mustering 3.7 sacks and 13.9 pressures a game — Josh Sweat (2.5 sacks, 5.5 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Seahawks will live and die with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who comes open 64% of the time (60 yds a game).
  • The Cardinals lean on Marvin Harrison Jr., good for 5.6 catches and 43 yds a game while breaking open on 39% of his routes.
  • Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 31% of routes, adding 1.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Zach Charbonnet sets the tempo for the Seahawks — 78 yds a game on the ground at 4.7 a carry, finding room to the right side and moving the chains.
  • The Cardinals lean on Jeremiyah Love, 8 carries for 43 yds a game at 5.7 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -12.1
Market lineSEA -10
Sim total47
Market total44.5
SEA by 12.1 (86% to win) Projected total 47 pts Jacoby Brissett ~262 pass yds (250+ 54%) Zach Charbonnet ~78 rush yds (70+ 62%) Cooper Kupp ~71 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 50%)