SEA @ CAR Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 17 slate
SEA Seahawks
23
PROJECTION
Week 17 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
SEA82%23
CAR18%16
16
CAR Panthers
BET VALUE
MARKET SEA -5.5 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

SEA
CAR
82% Win Probability 18%
346 Total Yards 306
212 Passing Yards 216
134 Rushing Yards 90
2.2 Sacks 1.5
1.5 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

SEA
PASS Sam Darnold210 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet80 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Cooper Kupp4.9 rec, 58 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba4.6 rec, 57 yds, 0.3 TD
CAR
PASS Bryce Young230 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard44 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.9 rec, 75 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jalen Coker3.8 rec, 41 yds, 0.1 TD

Seahawks by 7.5

Seahawks are the pick here, favoured by 7.5 and winning 82% of 50 sims (projected 23-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks) vs Tre'von Moehrig (Panthers) - winner: Zach Charbonnet, 4.7 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Tyrice Knight (Seahawks) - winner: Tyrice Knight, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
In the Trenches
  • The Seahawks get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (4.7 sacks a game), with Uchenna Nwosu (0.9 sacks, 6.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Panthers — a 51% win rate, 3.1 sacks and 14.9 pressures a game (Jaelan Phillips (2.4 sacks, 5.7 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the go-to for the Seahawks, separating on 53% of routes for 42 yds a game.
  • Tetairoa McMillan is the go-to for the Panthers, separating on 42% of routes for 46 yds a game.
  • In coverage, Julian Love (Seahawks) travels and erases — only 28% separation allowed, adding 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Seahawks' run game leans on Zach Charbonnet — 17 carries, 80 yds a game (4.7 a carry), with the holes opening off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • Expect a steady diet of Chuba Hubbard: 44 yds a game at 3.2 a carry for the Panthers.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -7.5
Market lineSEA -5.5
Sim total39
Market total42.5
SEA by 7.5 (82% to win) Projected total 39 pts Bryce Young ~230 pass yds (250+ 38%) Zach Charbonnet ~80 rush yds (70+ 58%) Tetairoa McMillan ~75 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 44%)