SEA @ DEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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SEA Seahawks
19
PROJECTION
SEA 14 – DEN 17
Week 6 50-sim average Thu 15 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
SEA70%19 14
DEN30%14 17
14
DEN Broncos
✗ RESULT DEN by 3 model SEA by 4.9, off by 7.9
✗ SPREAD SEA -3 LOSS line at publish SEA -3
✓ TOTAL 31 pts UNDER O/U 41, model 34 lean under

Projected Team Stats

SEA
DEN
70% Win Probability 30%
305 Total Yards 287
211 Passing Yards 193
94 Rushing Yards 94
2.6 Sacks 2.7
1.6 Turnovers 2.0

Projected Leaders

SEA
PASS Sam Darnold220 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Emanuel Wilson49 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba6.8 rec, 91 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Cooper Kupp3.4 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD
DEN
PASS Bo Nix211 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins48 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle6.7 rec, 75 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Courtland Sutton3.6 rec, 39 yds, 0.2 TD

Seahawks by 4.9

The sim sides with Seahawks: a 4.9-point edge and a 70% win rate over 50 runs (19-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) vs Red Murdock (Broncos) - winner: Red Murdock, holding him to 3.0 yds a carry - nowhere to run.
  • Byron Murphy II (Seahawks) vs Ben Powers (Broncos) - winner: Byron Murphy II, winning 57% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 5.0 pressures a game - a one-man wrecking crew off the edge.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Ja'Quan McMillian (Broncos) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 63% of routes for 8.5/11.2, 70 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Seahawks get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.2 sacks a game), led by DeMarcus Lawrence (1.5 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Broncos — a 51% win rate yields only 5.7 sacks and 27.9 pressures a game, led by Jonah Elliss (1.7 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Look for Jaxon Smith-Njigba to eat: 8.5 catches and 70 yds a game for the Seahawks.
  • Jaylen Waddle is the go-to for the Broncos, separating on 43% of routes for 51 yds a game.
  • In coverage, Julian Love (Seahawks) travels and erases — only 28% separation allowed, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Emanuel Wilson sets the tempo for the Seahawks — 49 yds a game on the ground at 3.0 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle into a stout front.
  • The Broncos lean on J.K. Dobbins, 12 carries for 48 yds a game at 4.0 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -4.9
Market lineSEA -3
Sim total34
Market total41
SEA by 4.9 (70% to win) Projected total 34 pts Sam Darnold ~220 pass yds (250+ 34%) Emanuel Wilson ~49 rush yds (70+ 14%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~91 rec yds, 6.8 rec (70+ 74%)