SEA @ DEN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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SEA Seahawks
25
PROJECTION
Week 6 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
SEA58%25
DEN42%24
24
DEN Broncos
BET VALUE
MARKET SEA -2.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

SEA
DEN
58% Win Probability 42%
358 Total Yards 376
231 Passing Yards 250
127 Rushing Yards 126
2.4 Sacks 2.2
1.7 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

SEA
PASS Sam Darnold235 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet70 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba5.9 rec, 77 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Cooper Kupp5.3 rec, 56 yds, 0.2 TD
DEN
PASS Bo Nix261 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH J.K. Dobbins58 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jaylen Waddle5.5 rec, 69 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Courtland Sutton5.5 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD

Seahawks by 1.7

The model leans Seahawks by 1.7, winning 58% of 50 sims (projected 25-24).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Courtland Sutton (Broncos) vs Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) - winner: Devon Witherspoon, holding him to 44 yds on just 38% open, 0.8 INT a game, - locked up on the outside.
  • Cooper Kupp (Seahawks) vs Pat Surtain II (Broncos) - winner: Pat Surtain II, holding him to 37 yds on just 38% open, 0.6 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs Tyrice Knight (Seahawks) - winner: J.K. Dobbins, 5.0 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • The Seahawks get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (4.6 sacks a game), led by Uchenna Nwosu (1.1 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Broncos — a 51% win rate yields only 4.5 sacks and 19.0 pressures a game, led by Nik Bonitto (2.2 sacks, 4.5 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Look for Jaxon Smith-Njigba to eat: 7.0 catches and 59 yds a game for the Seahawks.
  • Jaylen Waddle is the go-to for the Broncos, separating on 59% of routes for 50 yds a game.
  • In coverage, Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) travels and erases — only 31% separation allowed, adding 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Seahawks lean on Zach Charbonnet, 17 carries for 70 yds a game at 4.1 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.
  • On the ground, the Broncos ride J.K. Dobbins: 12 carries, 58 yds a game (5.0 a carry), finding room off the right edge and controlling the clock.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -1.7
Market lineSEA -2.5
Sim total49
Market total43.5
SEA by 1.7 (58% to win) Projected total 49 pts Bo Nix ~261 pass yds (250+ 62%) Zach Charbonnet ~70 rush yds (70+ 44%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~77 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 48%)