SEA @ LA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
SEA Seahawks
24
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
SEA20%24
LA80%30
30
LA Rams
BET VALUE
MARKET LA -2.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

SEA
LA
20% Win Probability 80%
350 Total Yards 451
247 Passing Yards 315
102 Rushing Yards 136
2.1 Sacks 1.6
1.8 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

SEA
PASS Sam Darnold256 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet62 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba5.8 rec, 78 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Cooper Kupp5.4 rec, 60 yds, 0.2 TD
LA
PASS Matthew Stafford311 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams82 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.9 rec, 100 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Davante Adams5.2 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD

Rams by 6.2

Run it 50 times and Rams win 80% of them, by 6.2 on average (30-24).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Tyrice Knight (Seahawks) - winner: Kyren Williams, 4.8 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 60% of routes for 7.0/9.5, 57 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Rams get stonewalled often up front, winning only 53% of reps (4.1 sacks a game), Myles Garrett (2.8 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Rams' line should hold up: the Seahawks win just 50% of their reps, mustering 4.7 sacks and 18.5 pressures a game — Uchenna Nwosu (1.0 sacks, 6.6 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Puka Nacua is the go-to for the Rams, separating on 55% of routes for 92 yds a game.
  • Through the air it is Jaxon Smith-Njigba's show for the Seahawks: 57 yds a game, open on 60% of routes.
  • Kamren Kinchens (Rams) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 40% of routes, good for 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Kyren Williams sets the tempo for the Rams — 82 yds a game on the ground at 4.8 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • Zach Charbonnet carries the load for the Seahawks, 17 carries for 62 yds a game at 3.6 a carry, finding room off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -6.2
Market lineLA -2.5
Sim total54
Market total45.5
LA by 6.2 (80% to win) Projected total 54 pts Matthew Stafford ~311 pass yds (250+ 84%) Kyren Williams ~82 rush yds (70+ 62%) Puka Nacua ~100 rec yds, 7.9 rec (70+ 78%)