SEA @ PHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 15 slate
SEA Seahawks
23
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
SEA60%23
PHI40%21
21
PHI Eagles
BET VALUE
MARKET PHI -1.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

SEA
PHI
60% Win Probability 40%
329 Total Yards 351
195 Passing Yards 226
135 Rushing Yards 124
3.0 Sacks 1.8
1.5 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

SEA
PASS Sam Darnold202 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet79 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba4.8 rec, 58 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Cooper Kupp4.3 rec, 47 yds, 0.3 TD
PHI
PASS Jalen Hurts247 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Saquon Barkley58 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC DeVonta Smith5.0 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Makai Lemon4.8 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD

Seahawks by 2.1

The model leans Seahawks by 2.1, winning 60% of 50 sims (projected 23-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks) vs Jihaad Campbell (Eagles) - winner: Zach Charbonnet, 4.8 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • DeVonta Smith (Eagles) vs Noah Igbinoghene (Seahawks) - winner: DeVonta Smith, open on 62% of routes for 6.8/8.3, 55 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • The Seahawks get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (5.8 sacks a game), led by Uchenna Nwosu (1.7 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game).
  • The Eagles may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 3.7 sacks a game, and Jonathan Greenard (0.9 sacks, 6.1 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Seahawks will live and die with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who comes open 55% of the time (47 yds a game).
  • Through the air it is DeVonta Smith's show for the Eagles: 55 yds a game, open on 62% of routes.
  • Julian Love (Seahawks) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 35% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Zach Charbonnet carries the load for the Seahawks, 16 carries for 79 yds a game at 4.8 a carry, finding room off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • The Eagles' run game leans on Saquon Barkley — 14 carries, 58 yds a game (4.1 a carry), churning off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -2.1
Market linePHI -1.5
Sim total44
Market total43.5
SEA by 2.1 (60% to win) Projected total 44 pts Jalen Hurts ~247 pass yds (250+ 56%) Zach Charbonnet ~79 rush yds (70+ 62%) DeVonta Smith ~62 rec yds, 5.0 rec (70+ 32%)