SEA @ SF Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
SEA Seahawks
31
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
SEA88%31
SF12%19
19
SF 49ers
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take SEA +1.5 +13.9 pts
MARKET SF -1.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

SEA
SF
88% Win Probability 12%
386 Total Yards 353
246 Passing Yards 251
141 Rushing Yards 102
2.9 Sacks 1.5
1.3 Turnovers 1.7

Projected Leaders

SEA
PASS Sam Darnold231 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet72 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Cooper Kupp5.8 rec, 70 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba4.6 rec, 63 yds, 0.4 TD
SF
PASS Brock Purdy272 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey57 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Mike Evans5.0 rec, 67 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jake Tonges2.8 rec, 46 yds, 0.3 TD

Seahawks by 12.4

The sim sides with Seahawks: a 12.4-point edge and a 88% win rate over 50 runs (31-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Mike Evans (49ers) vs Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) - winner: Devon Witherspoon, holding him to 41 yds on just 38% open, 0.7 INT a game, - a window that never opens.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 63% of routes for 6.0/7.8, 58 yds a game - separation all day.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Seahawks — a 50% win rate yields only 5.7 sacks and 32.3 pressures a game, Uchenna Nwosu (1.7 sacks, 8.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The 49ers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 3.1 sacks a game — Nick Bosa (1.6 sacks, 3.2 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the go-to for the Seahawks, separating on 63% of routes for 58 yds a game.
  • Expect the 49ers to feed Mike Evans: 5.5 catches for 41 yds a game, open 38% of the time.
  • Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 31% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.8 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Seahawks ride Zach Charbonnet: 16 carries, 72 yds a game (4.5 a carry), doing his damage off right tackle.
  • Expect a steady diet of Christian McCaffrey: 57 yds a game at 3.5 a carry for the 49ers, churning off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -12.4
Market lineSF -1.5
Sim total50
Market total46.5
SEA by 12.4 (88% to win) Projected total 50 pts Brock Purdy ~272 pass yds (250+ 56%) Zach Charbonnet ~72 rush yds (70+ 40%) Cooper Kupp ~70 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 46%)