SEA @ WAS Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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SEA Seahawks
26
PROJECTION
SEA 31 – WAS 33
Week 3 50-sim average Sun 27 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
SEA90%26 31
WAS10%12 33
12
WAS Commanders
✗ RESULT WAS by 2 model SEA by 14.0, off by 16.0
✗ VALUE SEA -7 LOSS line at publish SEA -7
✗ TOTAL 64 pts OVER O/U 40, model 38 lean under

Projected Team Stats

SEA
WAS
90% Win Probability 10%
379 Total Yards 261
255 Passing Yards 176
123 Rushing Yards 85
3.1 Sacks 1.4
1.0 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

SEA
PASS Sam Darnold237 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jadarian Price67 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba5.3 rec, 76 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Cooper Kupp4.6 rec, 59 yds, 0.4 TD
WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels199 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt39 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Terry McLaurin3.9 rec, 55 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Stefon Diggs3.1 rec, 37 yds, 0.2 TD

Seahawks by 14.0

The model leans Seahawks by 14.0, winning 90% of 50 sims (projected 26-12).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Terry McLaurin (Commanders) vs Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) - winner: Devon Witherspoon, holding him to 34 yds on just 39% open, 0.6 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs Josh Jobe (Seahawks) - winner: Josh Jobe, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Jadarian Price (Seahawks) vs Jeremy Reaves (Commanders) - winner: Jadarian Price, 4.7 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Rasul Douglas (Commanders) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 65% of routes for 6.2/8.1, 62 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Seahawks get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (6.2 sacks a game), DeMarcus Lawrence (2.6 sacks, 9.0 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Seahawks' line should hold up: the Commanders win just 51% of their reps, mustering 2.6 sacks and 14.3 pressures a game, and Odafe Oweh (2.0 sacks, 5.2 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the go-to for the Seahawks, separating on 65% of routes for 62 yds a game.
  • Terry McLaurin is the go-to for the Commanders, separating on 39% of routes for 34 yds a game.
  • On the back end, Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 33% of routes, good for 0.6 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Seahawks hand it to Jadarian Price early and often, 14 carries for 67 yds a game at 4.7 a carry, finding room off the right edge and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Expect a steady diet of Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 39 yds a game at 2.9 a carry for the Commanders.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -14.0
Market lineSEA -7
Sim total38
Market total40
SEA by 14.0 (90% to win) Projected total 38 pts Sam Darnold ~237 pass yds (250+ 42%) Jadarian Price ~67 rush yds (70+ 38%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~76 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 56%)