SEA @ WAS Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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SEA Seahawks
32
PROJECTION
Week 3 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
SEA86%32
WAS14%17
17
WAS Commanders
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take SEA -3.5 +11.5 pts
MARKET SEA -3.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

SEA
WAS
86% Win Probability 14%
423 Total Yards 273
257 Passing Yards 182
165 Rushing Yards 91
2.8 Sacks 1.5
1.6 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

SEA
PASS Sam Darnold242 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet91 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba4.8 rec, 70 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Cooper Kupp5.1 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD
WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels203 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt46 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Terry McLaurin4.2 rec, 55 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Antonio Williams3.9 rec, 39 yds, 0.2 TD

Seahawks by 15.0

Run it 50 times and Seahawks win 86% of them, by 15.0 on average (32-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Zach Charbonnet, 5.2 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 63% of routes for 5.9/7.8, 58 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Seahawks — a 49% win rate yields only 5.8 sacks and 25.4 pressures a game, Uchenna Nwosu (1.9 sacks, 7.3 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Commanders may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 3.2 sacks a game, and Odafe Oweh (2.3 sacks, 5.3 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Jaxon Smith-Njigba's show for the Seahawks: 58 yds a game, open on 63% of routes.
  • Expect the Commanders to feed Terry McLaurin: 5.4 catches for 41 yds a game, open 46% of the time.
  • In coverage, Julian Love (Seahawks) travels and erases — only 32% separation allowed, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Zach Charbonnet sets the tempo for the Seahawks — 91 yds a game on the ground at 5.2 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side and moving the chains.
  • The Commanders hand it to Jacory Croskey-Merritt early and often, 13 carries for 46 yds a game at 3.4 a carry, with his best work off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -15.0
Market lineSEA -3.5
Sim total49
Market total46.5
SEA by 15.0 (86% to win) Projected total 49 pts Sam Darnold ~242 pass yds (250+ 40%) Zach Charbonnet ~91 rush yds (70+ 70%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~70 rec yds, 4.8 rec (70+ 46%)