SF @ ARZ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
SF 49ers
25
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
SF54%25
ARZ46%22
22
ARZ Cardinals
BET VALUE
Lean ARZ +8.5 +5.7 pts
MARKET SF -8.5 · O/U 44.5

Projected Team Stats

SF
ARZ
54% Win Probability 46%
396 Total Yards 343
275 Passing Yards 246
121 Rushing Yards 98
3.7 Sacks 3.5
1.3 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

SF
PASS Brock Purdy291 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey71 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Mike Evans5.1 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Ricky Pearsall3.8 rec, 62 yds, 0.4 TD
ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett268 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love55 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.5.0 rec, 68 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Michael Wilson4.9 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD

49ers by 2.8

The sim sides with 49ers: a 2.8-point edge and a 54% win rate over 50 runs (25-22).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 7.3 yds a carry - running downhill all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Cardinals' line should hold up: the 49ers win just 49% of their reps, mustering 7.8 sacks and 33.7 pressures a game (Nick Bosa (3.4 sacks, 6.8 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Cardinals — a 49% win rate yields only 6.6 sacks and 29.5 pressures a game, led by Josh Sweat (3.4 sacks, 8.7 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Mike Evans headlines the 49ers' receiving corps — 5.3 catches for 55 yds a game on 46% separation.
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. should find soft spots all day, open 48% of the time for 53 yds a game.
  • Fred Warner (49ers) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 41% of routes with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Christian McCaffrey sets the tempo for the 49ers — 71 yds a game on the ground at 4.3 a carry, finding room to the right side.
  • The Cardinals lean on Jeremiyah Love, 7 carries for 55 yds a game at 7.3 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSF -2.8
Market lineSF -8.5
Sim total47
Market total44.5
SF by 2.8 (54% to win) Projected total 47 pts Brock Purdy ~291 pass yds (250+ 68%) Christian McCaffrey ~71 rush yds (70+ 40%) Mike Evans ~82 rec yds, 5.1 rec (70+ 50%)