SF @ ATL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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SF 49ers
20
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
SF34%20
ATL66%26
26
ATL Falcons
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take ATL +4.5 +11.0 pts
MARKET SF -4.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

SF
ATL
34% Win Probability 66%
338 Total Yards 375
243 Passing Yards 223
95 Rushing Yards 152
2.0 Sacks 2.3
1.2 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

SF
PASS Brock Purdy257 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey54 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Mike Evans4.7 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ricky Pearsall3.2 rec, 46 yds, 0.1 TD
ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.228 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson103 rush yds, 1.0 TD
REC Drake London5.3 rec, 69 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.9 rec, 46 yds, 0.4 TD

Falcons by 6.5

Run it 50 times and Falcons win 66% of them, by 6.5 on average (26-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.1 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: Drake London, open on 64% of routes for 7.2/9.6, 57 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Falcons — a 50% win rate yields only 5.3 sacks and 27.1 pressures a game, Jalon Walker (2.9 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Falcons' line should hold up: the 49ers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 4.0 sacks and 18.2 pressures a game (Nick Bosa (1.8 sacks, 4.5 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Drake London headlines the Falcons' receiving corps — 7.2 catches for 57 yds a game on 64% separation.
  • Mike Evans headlines the 49ers' receiving corps — 5.3 catches for 49 yds a game on 49% separation.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Clark Phillips III (Falcons): 38% separation allowed with 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Falcons hand it to Bijan Robinson early and often, 17 carries for 103 yds a game at 6.1 a carry, doing his damage to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Christian McCaffrey carries the load for the 49ers, 16 carries for 54 yds a game at 3.4 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineATL -6.5
Market lineSF -4.5
Sim total46
Market total47.5
ATL by 6.5 (66% to win) Projected total 46 pts Brock Purdy ~257 pass yds (250+ 56%) Bijan Robinson ~103 rush yds (70+ 88%) Mike Evans ~73 rec yds, 4.7 rec (70+ 44%)