SF @ DAL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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SF 49ers
21
PROJECTION
Week 10 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
SF34%21
DAL66%27
27
DAL Cowboys
BET VALUE
MARKET DAL -1.5 · O/U 52.5

Projected Team Stats

SF
DAL
34% Win Probability 66%
360 Total Yards 377
263 Passing Yards 253
97 Rushing Yards 124
2.5 Sacks 2.9
1.1 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

SF
PASS Brock Purdy279 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey52 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Mike Evans5.2 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ricky Pearsall3.8 rec, 53 yds, 0.3 TD
DAL
PASS Dak Prescott251 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams64 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.6 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
REC George Pickens4.4 rec, 63 yds, 0.5 TD

Cowboys by 5.6

Run it 50 times and Cowboys win 66% of them, by 5.6 on average (27-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Nick Bosa (49ers) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Nick Bosa, winning 55% of reps for 2.4 sacks and 5.5 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: Javonte Williams, 5.0 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) - winner: Jalen Thompson, holding him to 3.3 yds a carry - no daylight all game.
  • CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 58% of routes for 7.4/9.4, 70 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Cowboys get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.8 sacks a game), Rashan Gary (1.9 sacks, 9.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Cowboys' line should hold up: the 49ers win just 51% of their reps, mustering 5.1 sacks and 20.9 pressures a game (Nick Bosa (2.4 sacks, 5.5 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • CeeDee Lamb headlines the Cowboys' receiving corps — 7.4 catches for 70 yds a game on 58% separation.
  • The 49ers' aerial attack runs through Mike Evans (53 yds a game, open on 48% of routes).
  • Receivers won't find much room against Fred Warner (49ers): 30% separation allowed — and 0.4 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Javonte Williams sets the tempo for the Cowboys — 64 yds a game on the ground at 5.0 a carry, with his best work off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • Christian McCaffrey is the workhorse for the 49ers, churning 52 yds a game at 3.3 a carry, doing his damage to the right side against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDAL -5.6
Market lineDAL -1.5
Sim total47
Market total52.5
DAL by 5.6 (66% to win) Projected total 47 pts Brock Purdy ~279 pass yds (250+ 60%) Javonte Williams ~64 rush yds (70+ 36%) CeeDee Lamb ~80 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 58%)