SF @ KC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 16 slate
SF 49ers
18
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
SF36%18
KC64%25
25
KC Chiefs
BET VALUE
MARKET KC -2.5 · O/U 46.5

Projected Team Stats

SF
KC
36% Win Probability 64%
326 Total Yards 346
223 Passing Yards 206
103 Rushing Yards 140
3.2 Sacks 3.6
1.5 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

SF
PASS Brock Purdy244 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey61 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Mike Evans4.8 rec, 62 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ricky Pearsall3.7 rec, 52 yds, 0.2 TD
KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes217 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III69 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Rashee Rice5.3 rec, 65 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Travis Kelce3.9 rec, 47 yds, 0.4 TD

Chiefs by 6.2

Run it 50 times and Chiefs win 64% of them, by 6.2 on average (25-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.6 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Chiefs — a 50% win rate, 7.0 sacks and 34.9 pressures a game, and George Karlaftis (2.9 sacks, 9.7 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The 49ers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (6.3 sacks a game), Nick Bosa (3.0 sacks, 6.1 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Chiefs to feed Rashee Rice: 6.3 catches for 49 yds a game, open 59% of the time.
  • Mike Evans is the go-to for the 49ers, separating on 40% of routes for 37 yds a game.
  • On the back end, Mansoor Delane (Chiefs) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 38% of routes, good for 0.4 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Chiefs ride Kenneth Walker III: 12 carries, 69 yds a game (5.6 a carry), churning to the right side and controlling the clock.
  • Expect a steady diet of Christian McCaffrey: 61 yds a game at 3.8 a carry for the 49ers, churning off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineKC -6.2
Market lineKC -2.5
Sim total43
Market total46.5
KC by 6.2 (64% to win) Projected total 43 pts Brock Purdy ~244 pass yds (250+ 46%) Kenneth Walker III ~69 rush yds (70+ 42%) Rashee Rice ~65 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 32%)