SF @ KC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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SF 49ers
18
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
SF38%18
KC62%22
22
KC Chiefs

Projected Team Stats

SF
KC
38% Win Probability 62%
311 Total Yards 342
220 Passing Yards 220
91 Rushing Yards 122
2.3 Sacks 2.8
0.8 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

SF
PASS Brock Purdy238 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey47 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Mike Evans4.5 rec, 71 yds, 0.4 TD
REC George Kittle2.7 rec, 35 yds, 0.3 TD
KC
PASS Patrick Mahomes227 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Kenneth Walker III76 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Rashee Rice5.5 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Travis Kelce3.6 rec, 48 yds, 0.4 TD

Chiefs by 4.1

The model leans Chiefs by 4.1, winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 22-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs) vs Fred Warner (49ers) - winner: Kenneth Walker III, 5.2 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Chris Jones (Chiefs) vs Connor Colby (49ers) - winner: Chris Jones, winning 57% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 5.9 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs Drue Tranquill (Chiefs) - winner: Drue Tranquill, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
In the Trenches
  • The Chiefs may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 5.2 sacks a game — Felix Anudike-Uzomah (1.5 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Chiefs' quarterback should have time; the 49ers win just 50% of reps for 4.4 sacks a game, with Nick Bosa (2.9 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • The Chiefs lean on Rashee Rice, good for 7.1 catches and 54 yds a game while breaking open on 58% of his routes.
  • The 49ers lean on Mike Evans, good for 5.3 catches and 55 yds a game while breaking open on 56% of his routes.
  • Christian Roland-Wallace (Chiefs) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 44% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Chiefs lean on Kenneth Walker III, 15 carries for 76 yds a game at 5.2 a carry, churning off the right edge.
  • The 49ers hand it to Christian McCaffrey early and often, 14 carries for 47 yds a game at 3.2 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

KC by 4.1 (62% to win) Projected total 39 pts Brock Purdy ~238 pass yds (250+ 46%) Kenneth Walker III ~76 rush yds (70+ 50%) Mike Evans ~71 rec yds, 4.5 rec (70+ 44%)