SF @ LA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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SF 49ers
17
PROJECTION
Week 1 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
SF10%17
LA90%36
36
LA Rams
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take LA -3.5 +15.6 pts
MARKET LA -3.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

SF
LA
10% Win Probability 90%
310 Total Yards 478
228 Passing Yards 318
82 Rushing Yards 160
2.2 Sacks 3.7
1.6 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

SF
PASS Brock Purdy253 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey45 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Mike Evans4.8 rec, 64 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Ricky Pearsall3.9 rec, 52 yds, 0.2 TD
LA
PASS Matthew Stafford287 pass yds, 2.6 TD
RUSH Kyren Williams87 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Puka Nacua7.5 rec, 95 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Davante Adams5.3 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD

Rams by 19.1

Run it 50 times and Rams win 90% of them, by 19.1 on average (36-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Mike Evans (49ers) vs Trent McDuffie (Rams) - winner: Trent McDuffie, holding him to 38 yds on just 39% open, 0.8 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Kyren Williams (Rams) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: Kyren Williams, 5.4 yds a carry - moves the chains on the ground.
  • Christian McCaffrey (49ers) vs Kamren Curl (Rams) - winner: Kamren Curl, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Nick Bosa (49ers) vs Alaric Jackson (Rams) - winner: Nick Bosa, winning 55% of reps for 2.5 sacks and 4.9 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • Puka Nacua (Rams) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: Puka Nacua, open on 66% of routes for 11.1/12.4, 94 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Rams — a 52% win rate yields only 7.4 sacks and 40.5 pressures a game, Myles Garrett (3.9 sacks, 11.2 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Rams' line should hold up: the 49ers win just 51% of their reps, mustering 4.4 sacks and 18.1 pressures a game, and Nick Bosa (2.5 sacks, 4.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Rams lean on Puka Nacua, good for 11.1 catches and 94 yds a game while breaking open on 66% of his routes.
  • Mike Evans is the go-to for the 49ers, separating on 39% of routes for 38 yds a game.
  • Trent McDuffie (Rams) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 36% of routes, adding 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Rams hand it to Kyren Williams early and often, 16 carries for 87 yds a game at 5.4 a carry, churning off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • On the ground, the 49ers ride Christian McCaffrey: 15 carries, 45 yds a game (2.9 a carry) against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLA -19.1
Market lineLA -3.5
Sim total53
Market total48.5
LA by 19.1 (90% to win) Projected total 53 pts Matthew Stafford ~287 pass yds (250+ 66%) Kyren Williams ~87 rush yds (70+ 70%) Puka Nacua ~95 rec yds, 7.5 rec (70+ 66%)