SF @ LAC Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 15 slate
SF 49ers
21
PROJECTION
Week 15 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
SF36%21
LAC64%28
28
LAC Chargers
BET VALUE
MARKET LAC -2.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

SF
LAC
36% Win Probability 64%
342 Total Yards 376
241 Passing Yards 234
102 Rushing Yards 142
2.5 Sacks 2.9
1.8 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

SF
PASS Brock Purdy260 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey54 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Mike Evans4.5 rec, 60 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ricky Pearsall3.5 rec, 50 yds, 0.3 TD
LAC
PASS Justin Herbert236 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Omarion Hampton69 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Ladd McConkey5.3 rec, 62 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Quentin Johnston4.2 rec, 55 yds, 0.2 TD

Chargers by 7.4

Chargers are the pick here, favoured by 7.4 and winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 28-21).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs Dre Greenlaw (49ers) - winner: Omarion Hampton, 5.8 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Chargers — a 50% win rate, 5.6 sacks and 30.2 pressures a game (Tuli Tuipulotu (3.1 sacks, 9.0 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The 49ers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (5.2 sacks a game), Nick Bosa (1.9 sacks, 5.4 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Ladd McConkey should find soft spots all day, open 55% of the time for 55 yds a game.
  • Mike Evans headlines the 49ers' receiving corps — 4.8 catches for 39 yds a game on 44% separation.
  • Few balls get past Fred Warner (49ers), who yields separation on 34% of routes — and 0.3 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Chargers lean on Omarion Hampton, 12 carries for 69 yds a game at 5.8 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.
  • Christian McCaffrey is the workhorse for the 49ers, churning 54 yds a game at 3.4 a carry, finding room off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLAC -7.4
Market lineLAC -2.5
Sim total49
Market total47.5
LAC by 7.4 (64% to win) Projected total 49 pts Brock Purdy ~260 pass yds (250+ 56%) Omarion Hampton ~69 rush yds (70+ 38%) Ladd McConkey ~62 rec yds, 5.3 rec (70+ 36%)