SF @ NYG Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

SF 49ers

PROJECTION

Week 13 50-sim average

	WIN%	PTS
SF	64%	25
NYG	36%	20

NYG Giants

BET VALUE

MARKET SF -3 · O/U 47.5

NYG

64% Win Probability 36%

383 Total Yards 323

263 Passing Yards 218

119 Rushing Yards 105

2.9 Sacks 3.0

1.4 Turnovers 1.3

PASS

Brock Purdy272 pass yds, 1.9 TD

RUSH

Christian McCaffrey67 rush yds, 0.4 TD

REC

Mike Evans5.0 rec, 70 yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Ricky Pearsall3.8 rec, 61 yds, 0.3 TD

NYG

PASS

Jaxson Dart238 pass yds, 1.5 TD

RUSH

Cam Skattebo52 rush yds, 0.3 TD

REC

Malik Nabers5.9 rec, 91 yds, 0.5 TD

REC

Darius Slayton3.0 rec, 37 yds, 0.2 TD

49ers by 5.3

The model leans 49ers by 5.3, winning 64% of 50 sims (projected 25-20).

In the Trenches

The 49ers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 49% up front for 5.2 sacks a game (Nick Bosa (2.0 sacks, 5.1 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Pressure could be scarce for the Giants — a 50% win rate, 5.9 sacks and 29.8 pressures a game, and Brian Burns (2.9 sacks, 8.8 pressures a game) headlines it.

Through the Air

Mike Evans is the go-to for the 49ers, separating on 51% of routes for 49 yds a game.
Look for Malik Nabers to eat: 6.5 catches and 66 yds a game for the Giants.
Receivers won't find much room against Fred Warner (49ers): 38% separation allowed with 0.2 INT a game.

On the Ground

Christian McCaffrey sets the tempo for the 49ers — 67 yds a game on the ground at 4.3 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.
On the ground, the Giants ride Cam Skattebo: 13 carries, 52 yds a game (4.1 a carry), finding room off right tackle.

Sim lineSF -5.3

Market lineSF -3

Sim total45

Market total47.5

SF by 5.3 (64% to win) Projected total 45 pts Brock Purdy ~272 pass yds (250+ 60%) Christian McCaffrey ~67 rush yds (70+ 40%) Malik Nabers ~91 rec yds, 5.9 rec (70+ 72%)