SF @ SEA Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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SF 49ers
19
PROJECTION
Week 5 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
SF28%19
SEA72%28
28
SEA Seahawks
BET VALUE
Lean SEA -3.5 +5.8 pts
MARKET SEA -3.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

SF
SEA
28% Win Probability 72%
347 Total Yards 380
250 Passing Yards 242
97 Rushing Yards 137
1.2 Sacks 3.3
1.8 Turnovers 1.5

Projected Leaders

SF
PASS Brock Purdy272 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Christian McCaffrey54 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Mike Evans4.4 rec, 60 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ricky Pearsall3.6 rec, 49 yds, 0.1 TD
SEA
PASS Sam Darnold229 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Zach Charbonnet76 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Jaxon Smith-Njigba4.9 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Cooper Kupp5.4 rec, 63 yds, 0.3 TD

Seahawks by 9.3

Seahawks are the pick here, favoured by 9.3 and winning 72% of 50 sims (projected 28-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Mike Evans (49ers) vs Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) - winner: Devon Witherspoon, holding him to 34 yds on just 37% open, 1.0 INT a game, - shut down all game.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks) vs Deommodore Lenoir (49ers) - winner: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, open on 64% of routes for 6.7/7.8, 61 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Seahawks get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (6.7 sacks a game), with Uchenna Nwosu (2.0 sacks, 8.3 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Seahawks' line should hold up: the 49ers win just 51% of their reps, mustering 3.3 sacks and 13.5 pressures a game (Nick Bosa (1.4 sacks, 3.7 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Seahawks will live and die with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who comes open 64% of the time (61 yds a game).
  • The 49ers lean on Mike Evans, good for 4.4 catches and 34 yds a game while breaking open on 37% of his routes.
  • Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 29% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.9 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Seahawks ride Zach Charbonnet: 17 carries, 76 yds a game (4.5 a carry), churning to the right side.
  • Expect a steady diet of Christian McCaffrey: 54 yds a game at 3.4 a carry for the 49ers, finding room to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineSEA -9.3
Market lineSEA -3.5
Sim total48
Market total48.5
SEA by 9.3 (72% to win) Projected total 48 pts Brock Purdy ~272 pass yds (250+ 60%) Zach Charbonnet ~76 rush yds (70+ 50%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba ~66 rec yds, 4.9 rec (70+ 32%)