TB @ ATL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 16 slate
TB Buccaneers
16
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
TB26%16
ATL74%26
26
ATL Falcons
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take ATL +1.5 +12.0 pts
MARKET TB -1.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

TB
ATL
26% Win Probability 74%
271 Total Yards 374
189 Passing Yards 230
83 Rushing Yards 144
2.0 Sacks 2.1
1.4 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

TB
PASS Baker Mayfield201 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving34 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.5 rec, 52 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka3.0 rec, 39 yds, 0.2 TD
ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.232 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson96 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Drake London5.5 rec, 74 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Kyle Pitts3.8 rec, 48 yds, 0.6 TD

Falcons by 10.5

Run it 50 times and Falcons win 74% of them, by 10.5 on average (26-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.1 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Billy Bowman Jr. (Falcons) - winner: Billy Bowman Jr., holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Drake London, open on 61% of routes for 7.4/9.6, 60 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Falcons may have to manufacture pressure, winning 48% up front for 3.8 sacks a game, and Jalon Walker (2.1 sacks, 6.3 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Falcons' quarterback should have time; the Buccaneers win just 50% of reps for 3.9 sacks a game, with Yaya Diaby (1.9 sacks, 4.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Falcons to feed Drake London: 7.4 catches for 60 yds a game, open 61% of the time.
  • Expect the Buccaneers to feed Chris Godwin: 4.5 catches for 30 yds a game, open 50% of the time.
  • Divine Deablo (Falcons) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 37% of routes, good for 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Falcons lean on Bijan Robinson, 16 carries for 96 yds a game at 6.1 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.
  • Bucky Irving carries the load for the Buccaneers, 12 carries for 34 yds a game at 2.7 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim lineATL -10.5
Market lineTB -1.5
Sim total42
Market total45.5
ATL by 10.5 (74% to win) Projected total 42 pts Michael Penix Jr. ~232 pass yds (250+ 34%) Bijan Robinson ~96 rush yds (70+ 68%) Drake London ~74 rec yds, 5.5 rec (70+ 54%)