TB @ ATL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 16 slate
TB Buccaneers
17
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
TB20%17
ATL80%29
29
ATL Falcons

Projected Team Stats

TB
ATL
20% Win Probability 80%
306 Total Yards 371
219 Passing Yards 214
87 Rushing Yards 156
1.6 Sacks 2.5
1.6 Turnovers 0.7

Projected Leaders

TB
PASS Baker Mayfield238 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving47 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka5.1 rec, 65 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.7 rec, 53 yds, 0.2 TD
ATL
PASS Michael Penix Jr.200 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Bijan Robinson106 rush yds, 1.3 TD
REC Drake London6.0 rec, 80 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Jahan Dotson2.6 rec, 39 yds, 0.2 TD

Falcons by 11.5

Run it 50 times and Falcons win 80% of them, by 11.5 on average (29-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Bijan Robinson, 6.6 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Drake London (Falcons) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Drake London, open on 64% of routes for 8.3/10.2, 72 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Falcons — a 50% win rate yields only 4.9 sacks and 27.3 pressures a game, with Samson Ebukam (1.2 sacks, 6.6 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Falcons' line should hold up: the Buccaneers win just 49% of their reps, mustering 3.1 sacks and 10.6 pressures a game (Yaya Diaby (0.6 sacks, 4.2 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • Drake London should find soft spots all day, open 64% of the time for 72 yds a game.
  • Look for Emeka Egbuka to eat: 5.1 catches and 44 yds a game for the Buccaneers.
  • In coverage, Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) travels and erases — only 42% separation allowed — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • The Falcons' run game leans on Bijan Robinson — 16 carries, 106 yds a game (6.6 a carry), doing his damage to the right side and moving the chains.
  • Bucky Irving sets the tempo for the Buccaneers — 47 yds a game on the ground at 3.7 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

ATL by 11.5 (80% to win) Projected total 46 pts Baker Mayfield ~238 pass yds (250+ 38%) Bijan Robinson ~106 rush yds (70+ 82%) Drake London ~80 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 58%)