TB @ BLT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
TB Buccaneers
14
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
TB32%14
BLT68%22
22
BLT Ravens

Projected Team Stats

TB
BLT
32% Win Probability 68%
240 Total Yards 315
175 Passing Yards 182
65 Rushing Yards 132
2.5 Sacks 2.7
1.5 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

TB
PASS Baker Mayfield194 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving34 rush yds
REC Emeka Egbuka4.5 rec, 54 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.4 rec, 44 yds, 0.1 TD
BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson191 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry66 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.0 rec, 56 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.8 rec, 40 yds, 0.2 TD

Ravens by 8.1

The model leans Ravens by 8.1, winning 68% of 50 sims (projected 22-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Teddye Buchanan (Ravens) - winner: Teddye Buchanan, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
  • Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 65% of routes for 5.6/7.1, 53 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Ravens — a 48% win rate yields only 4.8 sacks and 24.7 pressures a game, with Trenton Simpson (1.4 sacks, 6.7 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Buccaneers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 4.3 sacks a game — Yaya Diaby (1.3 sacks, 6.6 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Zay Flowers' show for the Ravens: 53 yds a game, open on 65% of routes.
  • Through the air it is Emeka Egbuka's show for the Buccaneers: 29 yds a game, open on 43% of routes.
  • Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 27% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Ravens lean on Derrick Henry, 17 carries for 66 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.
  • Bucky Irving carries the load for the Buccaneers, 12 carries for 34 yds a game at 2.8 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

BLT by 8.1 (68% to win) Projected total 36 pts Baker Mayfield ~194 pass yds (250+ 12%) Derrick Henry ~66 rush yds (70+ 44%) Zay Flowers ~56 rec yds, 4.0 rec (70+ 34%)