TB @ BLT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
TB Buccaneers
13
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
TB20%13
BLT80%20
20
BLT Ravens
BET VALUE
MARKET BLT -6 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

TB
BLT
20% Win Probability 80%
249 Total Yards 305
167 Passing Yards 168
82 Rushing Yards 137
2.8 Sacks 1.9
1.5 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

TB
PASS Baker Mayfield179 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving34 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.4 rec, 45 yds
REC Emeka Egbuka3.0 rec, 38 yds, 0.2 TD
BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson183 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry78 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.1 rec, 55 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.5 rec, 34 yds, 0.3 TD

Ravens by 6.8

Across 50 simulations, Ravens come out on top 80% of the time by an average of 6.8 (20-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) - winner: Kyle Hamilton, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Derrick Henry, 4.8 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Rashod Bateman (Ravens) vs Zyon McCollum (Buccaneers) - winner: Zyon McCollum, holding him to 22 yds on just 38% open, 0.2 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
In the Trenches
  • The Buccaneers' line should hold up: the Ravens win just 50% of their reps, mustering 4.2 sacks and 21.0 pressures a game, and Tavius Robinson (1.1 sacks, 5.8 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Buccaneers get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (5.1 sacks a game), led by Elijah Roberts (1.4 sacks, 6.6 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Ravens' aerial attack runs through Zay Flowers (48 yds a game, open on 61% of routes).
  • Chris Godwin is the engine of the Buccaneers' passing game — 34 yds a game on 53% separation.
  • Kyle Hamilton (Ravens) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 32% of routes — and 0.1 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Ravens ride Derrick Henry: 16 carries, 78 yds a game (4.8 a carry), finding room off right tackle and controlling the clock.
  • The Buccaneers' run game leans on Bucky Irving — 13 carries, 34 yds a game (2.6 a carry) into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineBLT -6.8
Market lineBLT -6
Sim total33
Market total48.5
BLT by 6.8 (80% to win) Projected total 33 pts Lamar Jackson ~183 pass yds (250+ 8%) Derrick Henry ~78 rush yds (70+ 56%) Zay Flowers ~55 rec yds, 4.1 rec (70+ 24%)