TB @ CAR Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 7 slate
TB Buccaneers
20
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
TB26%20
CAR74%26
26
CAR Panthers
BET VALUE
MARKET CAR -3 · O/U 44

Projected Team Stats

TB
CAR
26% Win Probability 74%
324 Total Yards 347
209 Passing Yards 273
115 Rushing Yards 74
2.6 Sacks 2.1
1.5 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

TB
PASS Baker Mayfield221 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving61 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka4.8 rec, 62 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.6 rec, 50 yds, 0.3 TD
CAR
PASS Bryce Young277 pass yds, 2.3 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard37 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan6.4 rec, 94 yds, 0.7 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.2 rec, 59 yds, 0.4 TD

Panthers by 6.0

The model leans Panthers by 6.0, winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 26-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) vs Tykee Smith (Buccaneers) - winner: Tykee Smith, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
In the Trenches
  • The Panthers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 48% up front for 4.8 sacks a game — Jaelan Phillips (2.5 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Buccaneers — a 51% win rate yields only 4.8 sacks and 24.7 pressures a game, with Yaya Diaby (1.6 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Tetairoa McMillan headlines the Panthers' receiving corps — 8.8 catches for 84 yds a game on 56% separation.
  • Look for Emeka Egbuka to eat: 4.6 catches and 35 yds a game for the Buccaneers.
  • Few balls get past Mike Jackson (Panthers), who yields separation on 30% of routes with 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Panthers lean on Chuba Hubbard, 12 carries for 37 yds a game at 3.2 a carry.
  • The Buccaneers lean on Bucky Irving, 14 carries for 61 yds a game at 4.4 a carry, doing his damage off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCAR -6.0
Market lineCAR -3
Sim total46
Market total44
CAR by 6.0 (74% to win) Projected total 46 pts Bryce Young ~277 pass yds (250+ 70%) Bucky Irving ~61 rush yds (70+ 32%) Tetairoa McMillan ~94 rec yds, 6.4 rec (70+ 72%)