TB @ CAR Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 7 slate
TB Buccaneers
16
PROJECTION
Week 7 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
TB38%16
CAR62%20
20
CAR Panthers
BET VALUE
Lean CAR +1.5 +6.1 pts
MARKET TB -1.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

TB
CAR
38% Win Probability 62%
268 Total Yards 348
178 Passing Yards 235
89 Rushing Yards 113
2.4 Sacks 2.6
1.3 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

TB
PASS Baker Mayfield196 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving37 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.3 rec, 48 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka2.9 rec, 38 yds
CAR
PASS Bryce Young242 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Chuba Hubbard60 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tetairoa McMillan5.6 rec, 81 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Jalen Coker4.1 rec, 51 yds, 0.3 TD

Panthers by 4.6

The model leans Panthers by 4.6, winning 62% of 50 sims (projected 20-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Robert Rochell (Panthers) - winner: Robert Rochell, holding him to 3.1 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
In the Trenches
  • The Panthers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.4 sacks a game — Jaelan Phillips (3.3 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Buccaneers — a 49% win rate yields only 4.8 sacks and 20.1 pressures a game, with Yaya Diaby (2.1 sacks, 4.6 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Tetairoa McMillan headlines the Panthers' receiving corps — 7.0 catches for 65 yds a game on 54% separation.
  • Look for Chris Godwin to eat: 4.6 catches and 33 yds a game for the Buccaneers.
  • Few balls get past Mike Jackson (Panthers), who yields separation on 32% of routes with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Chuba Hubbard sets the tempo for the Panthers — 60 yds a game on the ground at 3.8 a carry, churning off the right edge.
  • On the ground, the Buccaneers ride Bucky Irving: 12 carries, 37 yds a game (3.1 a carry), doing his damage off right tackle against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCAR -4.6
Market lineTB -1.5
Sim total36
Market total45.5
CAR by 4.6 (62% to win) Projected total 36 pts Bryce Young ~242 pass yds (250+ 38%) Chuba Hubbard ~60 rush yds (70+ 28%) Tetairoa McMillan ~81 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 62%)