TB @ CHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 9 slate
TB Buccaneers
17
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
TB28%17
CHI72%25
25
CHI Bears
BET VALUE
MARKET CHI -3.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

TB
CHI
28% Win Probability 72%
309 Total Yards 349
182 Passing Yards 226
127 Rushing Yards 124
3.1 Sacks 2.6
1.6 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

TB
PASS Baker Mayfield198 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving52 rush yds
REC Chris Godwin4.9 rec, 50 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka3.1 rec, 37 yds
CHI
PASS Caleb Williams229 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift55 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Rome Odunze4.8 rec, 72 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Colston Loveland3.3 rec, 42 yds, 0.5 TD

Bears by 7.6

Across 50 simulations, Bears come out on top 72% of the time by an average of 7.6 (25-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
In the Trenches
  • The Bears get stonewalled often up front, winning only 49% of reps (5.1 sacks a game), led by Montez Sweat (1.6 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game).
  • The Bears' line should hold up: the Buccaneers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 6.2 sacks and 28.0 pressures a game — Elijah Roberts (1.8 sacks, 8.9 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Rome Odunze's show for the Bears: 57 yds a game, open on 48% of routes.
  • The Buccaneers lean on Chris Godwin, good for 5.0 catches and 33 yds a game while breaking open on 51% of his routes.
  • In coverage, Devin Bush (Bears) travels and erases — only 37% separation allowed, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Bears lean on D'Andre Swift, 13 carries for 55 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, churning off right tackle.
  • The Buccaneers lean on Bucky Irving, 13 carries for 52 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, finding room off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCHI -7.6
Market lineCHI -3.5
Sim total42
Market total48.5
CHI by 7.6 (72% to win) Projected total 42 pts Caleb Williams ~229 pass yds (250+ 34%) D'Andre Swift ~55 rush yds (70+ 22%) Rome Odunze ~72 rec yds, 4.8 rec (70+ 40%)