TB @ CHI Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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TB Buccaneers
19
PROJECTION
Week 9 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
TB40%19
CHI60%22
22
CHI Bears

Projected Team Stats

TB
CHI
40% Win Probability 60%
310 Total Yards 333
181 Passing Yards 209
129 Rushing Yards 125
3.0 Sacks 2.9
1.6 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

TB
PASS Baker Mayfield199 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving69 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka4.9 rec, 59 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Chris Godwin5.0 rec, 47 yds, 0.2 TD
CHI
PASS Caleb Williams223 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH D'Andre Swift56 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rome Odunze5.2 rec, 72 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Luther Burden III3.7 rec, 48 yds, 0.2 TD

Bears by 3.6

Across 50 simulations, Bears come out on top 60% of the time by an average of 3.6 (22-19).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Cam Lewis (Bears) - winner: Bucky Irving, 4.7 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
In the Trenches
  • The Buccaneers' line should hold up: the Bears win just 49% of their reps, mustering 6.1 sacks and 28.3 pressures a game (Montez Sweat (2.1 sacks, 7.4 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Buccaneers — a 50% win rate yields only 5.7 sacks and 26.6 pressures a game, led by Yaya Diaby (2.3 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Look for Rome Odunze to eat: 6.4 catches and 58 yds a game for the Bears.
  • Emeka Egbuka is the engine of the Buccaneers' passing game — 33 yds a game on 42% separation.
  • Few balls get past Devin Bush (Bears), who yields separation on 33% of routes with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • D'Andre Swift carries the load for the Bears, 13 carries for 56 yds a game at 4.3 a carry, with his best work to the right side.
  • Expect a steady diet of Bucky Irving: 69 yds a game at 4.7 a carry for the Buccaneers, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

CHI by 3.6 (60% to win) Projected total 41 pts Caleb Williams ~223 pass yds (250+ 32%) Bucky Irving ~69 rush yds (70+ 38%) Rome Odunze ~72 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 52%)