TB @ CIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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TB Buccaneers
18
PROJECTION
Week 1 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
TB16%18
CIN84%28
28
CIN Bengals
BET VALUE
Lean CIN -3.5 +6.7 pts
MARKET CIN -3.5 · O/U 51.5

Projected Team Stats

TB
CIN
16% Win Probability 84%
321 Total Yards 391
219 Passing Yards 311
102 Rushing Yards 80
2.8 Sacks 2.2
1.4 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

TB
PASS Baker Mayfield233 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving40 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Chris Godwin5.3 rec, 58 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka4.1 rec, 56 yds, 0.2 TD
CIN
PASS Joe Burrow308 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Chase Brown51 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase8.0 rec, 94 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Tee Higgins5.3 rec, 78 yds, 0.5 TD

Bengals by 10.2

Bengals are the pick here, favoured by 10.2 and winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 28-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Chris Godwin (Buccaneers) vs DJ Turner II (Bengals) - winner: DJ Turner II, holding him to 27 yds on just 35% open, 1.2 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Jalen Davis (Bengals) - winner: Jalen Davis, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Dexter Lawrence (Bengals) vs Graham Barton (Buccaneers) - winner: Dexter Lawrence, winning 57% of reps for 1.9 sacks and 5.6 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
  • Rueben Bain Jr. (Buccaneers) vs Orlando Brown Jr. (Bengals) - winner: Rueben Bain Jr., winning 56% of reps for 1.6 sacks and 4.0 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 61% of routes for 10.6/12.6, 86 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Bengals get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.1 sacks a game), Myles Murphy (1.3 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Buccaneers — a 50% win rate, 5.3 sacks and 21.4 pressures a game, and Elijah Roberts (1.3 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Bengals' aerial attack runs through Ja'Marr Chase (86 yds a game, open on 61% of routes).
  • The Buccaneers' aerial attack runs through Emeka Egbuka (29 yds a game, open on 47% of routes).
  • In coverage, Bryan Cook (Bengals) travels and erases — only 31% separation allowed with 0.3 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Chase Brown sets the tempo for the Bengals — 51 yds a game on the ground at 4.6 a carry, churning off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • On the ground, the Buccaneers ride Bucky Irving: 14 carries, 40 yds a game (2.9 a carry), churning off right tackle against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCIN -10.2
Market lineCIN -3.5
Sim total45
Market total51.5
CIN by 10.2 (84% to win) Projected total 45 pts Joe Burrow ~308 pass yds (250+ 84%) Chase Brown ~51 rush yds (70+ 26%) Ja'Marr Chase ~94 rec yds, 8.0 rec (70+ 64%)