TB @ DAL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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TB Buccaneers
16
PROJECTION
TB 24 – DAL 16
Week 5 50-sim average Thu 8 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
TB24%16 24
DAL76%26 16
26
DAL Cowboys
✗ RESULT TB by 8 model DAL by 9.7, off by 17.7
✗ SPREAD DAL -8.5 LOSS line at publish DAL -8.5
✓ TOTAL 40 pts UNDER O/U 47.5, model 42 lean under

Projected Team Stats

TB
DAL
24% Win Probability 76%
272 Total Yards 372
211 Passing Yards 275
61 Rushing Yards 97
2.6 Sacks 2.9
1.6 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

TB
PASS Baker Mayfield231 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving22 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka4.7 rec, 72 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.6 rec, 52 yds, 0.1 TD
DAL
PASS Dak Prescott278 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams48 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.8 rec, 80 yds, 0.5 TD
REC George Pickens4.7 rec, 62 yds, 0.4 TD

Cowboys by 9.7

The sim sides with Cowboys: a 9.7-point edge and a 76% win rate over 50 runs (26-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers) vs Joey Porter Jr. (Cowboys) - winner: Joey Porter Jr., holding him to 41 yds on just 38% open, 0.8 INT a game, - erased from the game plan.
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Ameer Speed (Cowboys) - winner: Ameer Speed, holding him to 2.0 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Al-Quadin Muhammad (Buccaneers) vs Tyler Guyton (Cowboys) - winner: Al-Quadin Muhammad, winning 56% of reps for 0.9 sacks and 4.1 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 61% of routes for 7.5/9.6, 67 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Buccaneers' quarterback should have time; the Cowboys win just 49% of reps for 5.1 sacks a game, with Rashan Gary (2.7 sacks, 7.1 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Buccaneers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 5.4 sacks a game, and Yaya Diaby (2.1 sacks, 8.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • CeeDee Lamb is the engine of the Cowboys' passing game — 67 yds a game on 61% separation.
  • The Buccaneers' aerial attack runs through Emeka Egbuka (41 yds a game, open on 38% of routes).
  • Joey Porter Jr. (Cowboys) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 35% of routes with 0.7 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Javonte Williams is the workhorse for the Cowboys, churning 48 yds a game at 4.1 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side.
  • Bucky Irving sets the tempo for the Buccaneers — 22 yds a game on the ground at 2.0 a carry into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDAL -9.7
Market lineDAL -8.5
Sim total42
Market total47.5
DAL by 9.7 (76% to win) Projected total 42 pts Dak Prescott ~278 pass yds (250+ 64%) Javonte Williams ~48 rush yds (70+ 12%) CeeDee Lamb ~80 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 58%)