TB @ DAL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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TB Buccaneers
17
PROJECTION
Week 5 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
TB28%17
DAL72%26
26
DAL Cowboys
BET VALUE
MARKET DAL -3.5 · O/U 52.5

Projected Team Stats

TB
DAL
28% Win Probability 72%
286 Total Yards 376
207 Passing Yards 251
79 Rushing Yards 125
2.7 Sacks 2.3
1.3 Turnovers 1.3

Projected Leaders

TB
PASS Baker Mayfield221 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving28 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.8 rec, 61 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka3.2 rec, 45 yds, 0.2 TD
DAL
PASS Dak Prescott249 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams68 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.2 rec, 75 yds, 0.6 TD
REC George Pickens4.6 rec, 69 yds, 0.5 TD

Cowboys by 8.3

The sim sides with Cowboys: a 8.3-point edge and a 72% win rate over 50 runs (26-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Reddy Steward (Cowboys) - winner: Reddy Steward, holding him to 2.2 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Javonte Williams, 5.0 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • George Pickens (Cowboys) vs Zyon McCollum (Buccaneers) - winner: George Pickens, open on 61% of routes for 5.7/6.6, 54 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Cowboys — a 49% win rate, 4.5 sacks and 21.4 pressures a game — Rashan Gary (1.3 sacks, 6.3 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Buccaneers — a 51% win rate yields only 5.5 sacks and 21.4 pressures a game, with Elijah Roberts (1.5 sacks, 7.6 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • CeeDee Lamb is the go-to for the Cowboys, separating on 58% of routes for 60 yds a game.
  • Through the air it is Chris Godwin's show for the Buccaneers: 41 yds a game, open on 54% of routes.
  • Caleb Downs (Cowboys) locks down his side, giving up open windows on just 36% of routes, good for 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Cowboys lean on Javonte Williams, 14 carries for 68 yds a game at 5.0 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.
  • Bucky Irving carries the load for the Buccaneers, 13 carries for 28 yds a game at 2.2 a carry with tough sledding.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDAL -8.3
Market lineDAL -3.5
Sim total43
Market total52.5
DAL by 8.3 (72% to win) Projected total 43 pts Dak Prescott ~249 pass yds (250+ 42%) Javonte Williams ~68 rush yds (70+ 40%) CeeDee Lamb ~75 rec yds, 5.2 rec (70+ 50%)