TB @ DET Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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TB Buccaneers
16
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
TB10%16
DET90%32
32
DET Lions

Projected Team Stats

TB
DET
10% Win Probability 90%
296 Total Yards 391
212 Passing Yards 275
83 Rushing Yards 116
1.5 Sacks 2.8
1.7 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

TB
PASS Baker Mayfield234 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving48 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka5.4 rec, 71 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.4 rec, 50 yds, 0.1 TD
DET
PASS Jared Goff259 pass yds, 2.3 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs74 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown5.8 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jameson Williams3.5 rec, 49 yds, 0.2 TD

Lions by 15.5

The sim sides with Lions: a 15.5-point edge and a 90% win rate over 50 runs (32-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.2 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Lions — a 50% win rate, 5.7 sacks and 28.7 pressures a game — Aidan Hutchinson (3.0 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Lions' quarterback should have time; the Buccaneers win just 50% of reps for 3.0 sacks a game, led by Yaya Diaby (0.7 sacks, 4.7 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Look for Amon-Ra St. Brown to eat: 7.8 catches and 71 yds a game for the Lions.
  • Emeka Egbuka should find soft spots all day, open 48% of the time for 43 yds a game.
  • In coverage, Brian Branch (Lions) travels and erases — only 33% separation allowed with 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Lions lean on Jahmyr Gibbs, 14 carries for 74 yds a game at 5.2 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.
  • The Buccaneers lean on Bucky Irving, 13 carries for 48 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, churning off the right edge.

Model vs Market

DET by 15.5 (90% to win) Projected total 48 pts Jared Goff ~259 pass yds (250+ 52%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~74 rush yds (70+ 48%) Amon-Ra St. Brown ~82 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 62%)