TB @ DET Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 11 slate
TB Buccaneers
14
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
TB16%14
DET84%28
28
DET Lions
BET VALUE
Lean DET -4.5 +8.7 pts
MARKET DET -4.5 · O/U 49.5

Projected Team Stats

TB
DET
16% Win Probability 84%
278 Total Yards 382
192 Passing Yards 256
86 Rushing Yards 126
1.6 Sacks 2.5
1.4 Turnovers 0.8

Projected Leaders

TB
PASS Baker Mayfield209 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving33 rush yds
REC Chris Godwin4.8 rec, 53 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka3.5 rec, 49 yds, 0.3 TD
DET
PASS Jared Goff243 pass yds, 2.0 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs83 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown6.5 rec, 76 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Jameson Williams4.5 rec, 65 yds, 0.4 TD

Lions by 13.2

Run it 50 times and Lions win 84% of them, by 13.2 on average (28-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Antoine Winfield Jr. (Buccaneers) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 5.8 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Brian Branch (Lions) - winner: Brian Branch, holding him to 2.7 yds a carry - running into a wall.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Jacob Parrish (Buccaneers) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 64% of routes for 8.7/10.4, 71 yds a game - money in this spot.
  • Rueben Bain Jr. (Buccaneers) vs Blake Miller (Lions) - winner: Rueben Bain Jr., winning 57% of reps for 1.4 sacks and 1.1 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Lions — a 49% win rate yields only 5.2 sacks and 21.2 pressures a game, led by Aidan Hutchinson (3.5 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game).
  • The Buccaneers may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 3.3 sacks a game, and Yaya Diaby (1.8 sacks, 1.9 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Amon-Ra St. Brown's show for the Lions: 71 yds a game, open on 64% of routes.
  • The Buccaneers will live and die with Chris Godwin, who comes open 53% of the time (34 yds a game).
  • Brian Branch (Lions) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 37% of routes, good for 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Lions' run game leans on Jahmyr Gibbs — 14 carries, 83 yds a game (5.8 a carry), doing his damage off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • Bucky Irving is the workhorse for the Buccaneers, churning 33 yds a game at 2.7 a carry, with his best work to the right side against a stingy front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -13.2
Market lineDET -4.5
Sim total42
Market total49.5
DET by 13.2 (84% to win) Projected total 42 pts Jared Goff ~243 pass yds (250+ 36%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~83 rush yds (70+ 66%) Amon-Ra St. Brown ~76 rec yds, 6.5 rec (70+ 56%)