TB @ NO Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
TB Buccaneers
16
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
TB24%16
NO76%23
23
NO Saints
BET VALUE
Lean NO +1.5 +8.8 pts
MARKET TB -1.5 · O/U 43.5

Projected Team Stats

TB
NO
24% Win Probability 76%
293 Total Yards 362
191 Passing Yards 273
102 Rushing Yards 89
1.6 Sacks 2.7
1.2 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

TB
PASS Baker Mayfield209 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Bucky Irving45 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Chris Godwin4.0 rec, 49 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Emeka Egbuka3.5 rec, 45 yds, 0.2 TD
NO
PASS Tyler Shough272 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Travis Etienne Jr.50 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Chris Olave7.9 rec, 108 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jordyn Tyson5.0 rec, 64 yds, 0.4 TD

Saints by 7.3

Run it 50 times and Saints win 76% of them, by 7.3 on average (23-16).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs Julian Blackmon (Saints) - winner: Julian Blackmon, holding him to 3.2 yds a carry - met in the backfield.
  • Rueben Bain Jr. (Buccaneers) vs Kelvin Banks Jr. (Saints) - winner: Rueben Bain Jr., winning 57% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 2.7 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Saints — a 49% win rate yields only 4.9 sacks and 21.5 pressures a game, with Chase Young (3.3 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) setting the tone.
  • The Saints' line should hold up: the Buccaneers win just 50% of their reps, mustering 3.3 sacks and 13.4 pressures a game (Yaya Diaby (1.7 sacks, 3.6 pressures a game) the one to watch).
Through the Air
  • The Saints' aerial attack runs through Chris Olave (97 yds a game, open on 55% of routes).
  • Chris Godwin headlines the Buccaneers' receiving corps — 4.7 catches for 35 yds a game on 57% separation.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Julian Blackmon (Saints): 42% separation allowed.
On the Ground
  • The Saints hand it to Travis Etienne Jr. early and often, 11 carries for 50 yds a game at 4.4 a carry, with his best work off right tackle.
  • The Buccaneers lean on Bucky Irving, 14 carries for 45 yds a game at 3.2 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNO -7.3
Market lineTB -1.5
Sim total39
Market total43.5
NO by 7.3 (76% to win) Projected total 39 pts Tyler Shough ~272 pass yds (250+ 60%) Travis Etienne Jr. ~50 rush yds (70+ 24%) Chris Olave ~108 rec yds, 7.9 rec (70+ 84%)