TEN @ BLT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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TEN Titans
13
PROJECTION
Week 4 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
TEN24%13
BLT76%25
25
BLT Ravens
BET VALUE
MARKET BLT -8.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

TEN
BLT
24% Win Probability 76%
255 Total Yards 365
185 Passing Yards 160
70 Rushing Yards 205
2.6 Sacks 3.8
1.3 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

TEN
PASS Cam Ward210 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard35 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Carnell Tate4.6 rec, 63 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson3.8 rec, 43 yds, 0.1 TD
BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson167 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry130 rush yds, 1.4 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.4 rec, 60 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.1 rec, 27 yds, 0.2 TD

Ravens by 11.6

The sim sides with Ravens: a 11.6-point edge and a 76% win rate over 50 runs (25-13).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Kevin Winston Jr. (Titans) - winner: Derrick Henry, 8.1 yds a carry - controls the line of scrimmage.
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Corey Bullock (Ravens) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 55% of reps for 1.1 sacks and 4.3 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
In the Trenches
  • The Titans' quarterback should have time; the Ravens win just 50% of reps for 7.0 sacks a game, led by Tavius Robinson (2.0 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game).
  • The Ravens' line should hold up: the Titans win just 50% of their reps, mustering 4.7 sacks and 21.5 pressures a game — John Franklin-Myers (1.7 sacks, 6.2 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Ravens will live and die with Zay Flowers, who comes open 55% of the time (45 yds a game).
  • The Titans lean on Carnell Tate, good for 4.9 catches and 43 yds a game while breaking open on 55% of his routes.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Kyle Hamilton (Ravens): 30% separation allowed, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Ravens' run game leans on Derrick Henry — 16 carries, 130 yds a game (8.1 a carry), with his best work off the right edge and moving the chains.
  • The Titans hand it to Tony Pollard early and often, 10 carries for 35 yds a game at 3.5 a carry, finding room to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineBLT -11.6
Market lineBLT -8.5
Sim total38
Market total47.5
BLT by 11.6 (76% to win) Projected total 38 pts Cam Ward ~210 pass yds (250+ 30%) Derrick Henry ~130 rush yds (70+ 82%) Carnell Tate ~63 rec yds, 4.6 rec (70+ 36%)