TEN @ BLT Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 4 slate
TEN Titans
9
PROJECTION
TEN 18 – BLT 24
Week 4 50-sim average Sun 4 Oct
WIN%PROJ FINAL
TEN16%9 18
BLT84%22 24
22
BLT Ravens
✓ RESULT BLT by 6 model BLT by 12.6, off by 6.6
✗ SPREAD BLT -11.5 LOSS line at publish BLT -11.5
✓ TOTAL 42 pts UNDER O/U 43.5, model 31 lean under

Projected Team Stats

TEN
BLT
16% Win Probability 84%
202 Total Yards 338
151 Passing Yards 185
51 Rushing Yards 153
2.0 Sacks 3.0
1.3 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

TEN
PASS Cam Ward172 pass yds, 0.5 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard23 rush yds
REC Carnell Tate4.5 rec, 50 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson3.6 rec, 38 yds, 0.1 TD
BLT
PASS Lamar Jackson179 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Derrick Henry92 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Zay Flowers4.4 rec, 62 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Rashod Bateman2.6 rec, 36 yds, 0.2 TD

Ravens by 12.6

The model leans Ravens by 12.6, winning 84% of 50 sims (projected 22-9).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs Owen Pappoe (Titans) - winner: Derrick Henry, 5.4 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Carnell Tate (Titans) vs Chidobe Awuzie (Ravens) - winner: Chidobe Awuzie, holding him to 31 yds on just 40% open, 0.7 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Tony Pollard (Titans) vs Marlon Humphrey (Ravens) - winner: Marlon Humphrey, holding him to 2.5 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Vega Ioane (Ravens) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 57% of reps for 1.2 sacks and 5.4 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs Cor'Dale Flott (Titans) - winner: Zay Flowers, open on 62% of routes for 5.5/7.4, 50 yds a game - money in this spot.
In the Trenches
  • The Titans' line should hold up: the Ravens win just 49% of their reps, mustering 5.9 sacks and 28.3 pressures a game — Tavius Robinson (1.9 sacks, 8.2 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Titans — a 50% win rate yields only 4.4 sacks and 25.0 pressures a game, John Franklin-Myers (1.2 sacks, 6.2 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • The Ravens' aerial attack runs through Zay Flowers (50 yds a game, open on 62% of routes).
  • Carnell Tate is the engine of the Titans' passing game — 31 yds a game on 40% separation.
  • On the back end, Roquan Smith (Ravens) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 32% of routes with 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Derrick Henry: 92 yds a game at 5.4 a carry for the Ravens, with the holes opening off right tackle.
  • The Titans' run game leans on Tony Pollard — 9 carries, 23 yds a game (2.5 a carry) into a stout front.

Model vs Market

Sim lineBLT -12.6
Market lineBLT -11.5
Sim total31
Market total43.5
BLT by 12.6 (84% to win) Projected total 31 pts Derrick Henry ~92 rush yds (70+ 70%) Zay Flowers ~62 rec yds, 4.4 rec (70+ 46%)