TEN @ CIN Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 8 slate
TEN Titans
14
PROJECTION
Week 8 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
TEN12%14
CIN88%30
30
CIN Bengals
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take CIN -6.5 +9.1 pts
MARKET CIN -6.5 · O/U 49.5

Projected Team Stats

TEN
CIN
12% Win Probability 88%
288 Total Yards 397
199 Passing Yards 324
89 Rushing Yards 73
2.4 Sacks 4.2
1.8 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

TEN
PASS Cam Ward231 pass yds, 0.7 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard46 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Carnell Tate4.6 rec, 61 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson4.5 rec, 49 yds, 0.2 TD
CIN
PASS Joe Burrow307 pass yds, 2.4 TD
RUSH Chase Brown43 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Ja'Marr Chase8.1 rec, 97 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Tee Higgins5.2 rec, 80 yds, 0.7 TD

Bengals by 15.6

Run it 50 times and Bengals win 88% of them, by 15.6 on average (30-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) vs Cor'Dale Flott (Titans) - winner: Ja'Marr Chase, open on 59% of routes for 10.0/12.2, 85 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • The Bengals may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 8.3 sacks a game — Myles Murphy (3.4 sacks, 10.4 pressures a game) out front.
  • The Titans get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (5.2 sacks a game), John Franklin-Myers (1.3 sacks, 8.0 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • Ja'Marr Chase is the go-to for the Bengals, separating on 59% of routes for 85 yds a game.
  • Carnell Tate is the go-to for the Titans, separating on 50% of routes for 41 yds a game.
  • Bryan Cook (Bengals) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 33% of his coverage snaps, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Chase Brown carries the load for the Bengals, 11 carries for 43 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, churning to the right side.
  • The Titans' run game leans on Tony Pollard — 11 carries, 46 yds a game (4.3 a carry), with his best work off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineCIN -15.6
Market lineCIN -6.5
Sim total44
Market total49.5
CIN by 15.6 (88% to win) Projected total 44 pts Joe Burrow ~307 pass yds (250+ 86%) Tony Pollard ~46 rush yds (70+ 10%) Ja'Marr Chase ~97 rec yds, 8.1 rec (70+ 78%)