TEN @ DAL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 11 slate
TEN Titans
17
PROJECTION
Week 11 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
TEN22%17
DAL78%26
26
DAL Cowboys
BET VALUE
MARKET DAL -6.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

TEN
DAL
22% Win Probability 78%
278 Total Yards 395
207 Passing Yards 268
71 Rushing Yards 127
2.6 Sacks 3.6
1.5 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

TEN
PASS Cam Ward229 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard36 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Carnell Tate4.4 rec, 61 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson4.2 rec, 54 yds, 0.2 TD
DAL
PASS Dak Prescott272 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams65 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.8 rec, 85 yds, 0.6 TD
REC George Pickens4.5 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD

Cowboys by 9.1

Cowboys are the pick here, favoured by 9.1 and winning 78% of 50 sims (projected 26-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Cedric Gray (Titans) - winner: Javonte Williams, 5.1 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Cooper Beebe (Cowboys) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 55% of reps for 1.5 sacks and 3.3 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
  • George Pickens (Cowboys) vs Alontae Taylor (Titans) - winner: George Pickens, open on 61% of routes for 5.5/6.7, 52 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Cowboys — a 49% win rate, 6.9 sacks and 29.8 pressures a game (Rashan Gary (2.6 sacks, 8.9 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • Don't expect much heat from the Titans — a 51% win rate yields only 5.2 sacks and 23.5 pressures a game, led by John Franklin-Myers (1.8 sacks, 7.7 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Cowboys will live and die with CeeDee Lamb, who comes open 53% of the time (68 yds a game).
  • The Titans lean on Carnell Tate, good for 4.6 catches and 38 yds a game while breaking open on 59% of his routes.
  • Few balls get past Jalen Thompson (Cowboys), who yields separation on 42% of routes, adding 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • On the ground, the Cowboys ride Javonte Williams: 13 carries, 65 yds a game (5.1 a carry), with the holes opening to the right side and controlling the clock.
  • The Titans lean on Tony Pollard, 11 carries for 36 yds a game at 3.4 a carry, doing his damage to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDAL -9.1
Market lineDAL -6.5
Sim total43
Market total48.5
DAL by 9.1 (78% to win) Projected total 43 pts Dak Prescott ~272 pass yds (250+ 60%) Javonte Williams ~65 rush yds (70+ 46%) CeeDee Lamb ~85 rec yds, 5.8 rec (70+ 66%)