TEN @ DET Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 14 slate
TEN Titans
11
PROJECTION
Week 14 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
TEN6%11
DET94%30
30
DET Lions
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take DET -7.5 +11.8 pts
MARKET DET -7.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

TEN
DET
6% Win Probability 94%
236 Total Yards 407
167 Passing Yards 249
69 Rushing Yards 158
1.5 Sacks 4.6
1.6 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

TEN
PASS Cam Ward200 pass yds, 0.5 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard38 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Carnell Tate4.3 rec, 57 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson4.1 rec, 44 yds, 0.1 TD
DET
PASS Jared Goff229 pass yds, 1.5 TD
RUSH Jahmyr Gibbs113 rush yds, 1.6 TD
REC Amon-Ra St. Brown5.7 rec, 68 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jameson Williams3.9 rec, 55 yds, 0.3 TD

Lions by 19.3

Lions are the pick here, favoured by 19.3 and winning 94% of 50 sims (projected 30-11).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs Kevin Winston Jr. (Titans) - winner: Jahmyr Gibbs, 7.6 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Aidan Hutchinson (Lions) vs JC Latham (Titans) - winner: Aidan Hutchinson, winning 58% of reps for 5.6 sacks and 9.8 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Cade Mays (Lions) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 57% of reps for 2.5 sacks and 0.1 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) vs Marcus Harris (Titans) - winner: Amon-Ra St. Brown, open on 65% of routes for 7.9/9.2, 63 yds a game - the edge through the air.
In the Trenches
  • The Titans' quarterback should have time; the Lions win just 50% of reps for 8.6 sacks a game, Aidan Hutchinson (5.6 sacks, 9.8 pressures a game) leading the way.
  • The Titans may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 3.0 sacks a game — Jeffery Simmons (2.5 sacks, 0.1 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • The Lions lean on Amon-Ra St. Brown, good for 7.9 catches and 63 yds a game while breaking open on 65% of his routes.
  • Through the air it is Carnell Tate's show for the Titans: 40 yds a game, open on 60% of routes.
  • Brian Branch (Lions) is the stopper here, allowing open looks on only 39% of his coverage snaps, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Jahmyr Gibbs sets the tempo for the Lions — 113 yds a game on the ground at 7.6 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle and moving the chains.
  • Tony Pollard carries the load for the Titans, 11 carries for 38 yds a game at 3.6 a carry, with the holes opening off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDET -19.3
Market lineDET -7.5
Sim total41
Market total47.5
DET by 19.3 (94% to win) Projected total 41 pts Jared Goff ~229 pass yds (250+ 36%) Jahmyr Gibbs ~113 rush yds (70+ 76%) Amon-Ra St. Brown ~68 rec yds, 5.7 rec (70+ 36%)