TEN @ HST Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 18 slate
TEN Titans
12
PROJECTION
Week 18 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
TEN10%12
HST90%28
28
HST Texans
BET VALUE
Lean HST -7 +8.8 pts
MARKET HST -7 · O/U 39.5

Projected Team Stats

TEN
HST
10% Win Probability 90%
226 Total Yards 396
156 Passing Yards 259
70 Rushing Yards 136
2.0 Sacks 4.8
1.6 Turnovers 1.0

Projected Leaders

TEN
PASS Cam Ward190 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard35 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Carnell Tate4.5 rec, 60 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson3.9 rec, 40 yds, 0.1 TD
HST
PASS C.J. Stroud247 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH David Montgomery72 rush yds, 0.6 TD
REC Nico Collins6.3 rec, 93 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tank Dell3.4 rec, 45 yds, 0.4 TD

Texans by 15.8

The sim sides with Texans: a 15.8-point edge and a 90% win rate over 50 runs (28-12).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) vs Dan Moore Jr. (Titans) - winner: Will Anderson Jr., winning 55% of reps for 5.1 sacks and 11.6 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • David Montgomery (Texans) vs Kevin Winston Jr. (Titans) - winner: David Montgomery, 4.9 yds a carry - the back the defense can't corral.
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Keylan Rutledge (Texans) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 58% of reps for 1.8 sacks and 3.2 pressures a game - the pressure that tilts it.
In the Trenches
  • The Titans' line should hold up: the Texans win just 51% of their reps, mustering 8.9 sacks and 36.1 pressures a game, and Will Anderson Jr. (5.1 sacks, 11.6 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Texans' quarterback should have time; the Titans win just 51% of reps for 4.4 sacks a game, led by John Franklin-Myers (1.2 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Texans' aerial attack runs through Nico Collins (77 yds a game, open on 56% of routes).
  • Carnell Tate is the engine of the Titans' passing game — 35 yds a game on 49% separation.
  • Few balls get past Jalen Pitre (Texans), who yields separation on 31% of routes — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • David Montgomery is the workhorse for the Texans, churning 72 yds a game at 4.9 a carry, finding room off the right edge and controlling the clock.
  • Expect a steady diet of Tony Pollard: 35 yds a game at 3.7 a carry for the Titans, churning off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineHST -15.8
Market lineHST -7
Sim total41
Market total39.5
HST by 15.8 (90% to win) Projected total 41 pts C.J. Stroud ~247 pass yds (250+ 48%) David Montgomery ~72 rush yds (70+ 50%) Nico Collins ~93 rec yds, 6.3 rec (70+ 74%)