TEN @ IND Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 6 slate
TEN Titans
14
PROJECTION
Week 6 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
TEN10%14
IND90%25
25
IND Colts
BET VALUE
Lean IND -3.5 +7.5 pts
MARKET IND -3.5 · O/U 48.5

Projected Team Stats

TEN
IND
10% Win Probability 90%
252 Total Yards 403
176 Passing Yards 256
77 Rushing Yards 148
1.6 Sacks 3.4
1.2 Turnovers 1.4

Projected Leaders

TEN
PASS Cam Ward200 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard40 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Carnell Tate4.4 rec, 60 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson3.9 rec, 42 yds, 0.2 TD
IND
PASS Daniel Jones247 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Jonathan Taylor92 rush yds, 0.9 TD
REC Alec Pierce5.4 rec, 89 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Tyler Warren4.8 rec, 50 yds, 0.4 TD

Colts by 11.0

Run it 50 times and Colts win 90% of them, by 11.0 on average (25-14).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jonathan Taylor (Colts) vs Kevin Winston Jr. (Titans) - winner: Jonathan Taylor, 6.3 yds a carry - a tone-setter on the ground.
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Tanor Bortolini (Colts) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 57% of reps for 1.9 sacks and 1.9 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Colts — a 50% win rate yields only 6.6 sacks and 32.2 pressures a game, led by Laiatu Latu (3.8 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game).
  • The Titans may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 3.6 sacks a game — John Franklin-Myers (0.8 sacks, 5.6 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is Alec Pierce's show for the Colts: 75 yds a game, open on 51% of routes.
  • The Titans will live and die with Carnell Tate, who comes open 52% of the time (40 yds a game).
  • Few balls get past Alontae Taylor (Titans), who yields separation on 45% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Colts hand it to Jonathan Taylor early and often, 15 carries for 92 yds a game at 6.3 a carry, doing his damage to the right side and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Tony Pollard sets the tempo for the Titans — 40 yds a game on the ground at 4.3 a carry, churning to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineIND -11.0
Market lineIND -3.5
Sim total40
Market total48.5
IND by 11.0 (90% to win) Projected total 40 pts Daniel Jones ~247 pass yds (250+ 52%) Jonathan Taylor ~92 rush yds (70+ 70%) Alec Pierce ~89 rec yds, 5.4 rec (70+ 60%)