TEN @ JAX Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
TEN Titans
12
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
TEN12%12
JAX88%26
26
JAX Jaguars
BET VALUE
Lean JAX -5.5 +8.4 pts
MARKET JAX -5.5 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

TEN
JAX
12% Win Probability 88%
230 Total Yards 346
151 Passing Yards 234
79 Rushing Yards 112
2.6 Sacks 4.1
1.8 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

TEN
PASS Cam Ward180 pass yds, 0.5 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard40 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC Carnell Tate4.0 rec, 51 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson3.5 rec, 36 yds, 0.1 TD
JAX
PASS Trevor Lawrence233 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH Bhayshul Tuten44 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC Brian Thomas Jr.4.0 rec, 57 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Brenton Strange3.9 rec, 47 yds, 0.5 TD

Jaguars by 13.9

The sim sides with Jaguars: a 13.9-point edge and a 88% win rate over 50 runs (26-12).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Robert Hainsey (Jaguars) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 55% of reps for 1.7 sacks and 4.7 pressures a game - the disruptor that swings the pass game.
  • Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars) vs Cor'Dale Flott (Titans) - winner: Cor'Dale Flott, holding him to 41 yds on just 40% open, 0.3 INT a game, - in his hip pocket all day.
In the Trenches
  • The Titans' quarterback should have time; the Jaguars win just 49% of reps for 7.8 sacks a game, led by Josh Hines-Allen (4.7 sacks, 11.1 pressures a game).
  • The Titans may have to manufacture pressure, winning 48% up front for 4.9 sacks a game, and John Franklin-Myers (1.7 sacks, 6.0 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
  • The Jaguars will live and die with Brian Thomas Jr., who comes open 40% of the time (41 yds a game).
  • Through the air it is Carnell Tate's show for the Titans: 35 yds a game, open on 54% of routes.
  • In coverage, Antonio Johnson (Jaguars) travels and erases — only 32% separation allowed, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Bhayshul Tuten is the workhorse for the Jaguars, churning 44 yds a game at 3.7 a carry, doing his damage off the right edge.
  • Expect a steady diet of Tony Pollard: 40 yds a game at 3.9 a carry for the Titans, churning off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineJAX -13.9
Market lineJAX -5.5
Sim total38
Market total45.5
JAX by 13.9 (88% to win) Projected total 38 pts Trevor Lawrence ~233 pass yds (250+ 38%) Brian Thomas Jr. ~57 rec yds, 4.0 rec (70+ 28%)