TEN @ LV Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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TEN Titans
18
PROJECTION
Week 16 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
TEN24%18
LV76%24
24
LV Raiders
BET VALUE
MARKET LV -1.5 · O/U 42.5

Projected Team Stats

TEN
LV
24% Win Probability 76%
290 Total Yards 360
205 Passing Yards 264
85 Rushing Yards 96
1.2 Sacks 3.5
1.2 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

TEN
PASS Cam Ward226 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard44 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Carnell Tate4.5 rec, 66 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson4.1 rec, 48 yds, 0.1 TD
LV
PASS Kirk Cousins255 pass yds, 1.7 TD
RUSH Ashton Jeanty52 rush yds, 0.7 TD
REC Tre Tucker6.6 rec, 81 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Jalen Nailor3.8 rec, 49 yds, 0.2 TD

Raiders by 6.7

Run it 50 times and Raiders win 76% of them, by 6.7 on average (24-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeffery Simmons (Titans) vs Tyler Linderbaum (Raiders) - winner: Jeffery Simmons, winning 57% of reps for 2.4 sacks and 0.3 pressures a game - winning his reps all afternoon.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Raiders — a 50% win rate, 7.0 sacks and 27.6 pressures a game, and Maxx Crosby (4.1 sacks, 9.2 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • The Titans get stonewalled often up front, winning only 50% of reps (3.0 sacks a game), led by Jeffery Simmons (2.4 sacks, 0.3 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Tre Tucker is the go-to for the Raiders, separating on 40% of routes for 54 yds a game.
  • The Titans will live and die with Carnell Tate, who comes open 52% of the time (42 yds a game).
  • On the back end, Joshua Williams (Titans) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 39% of routes, adding 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Raiders hand it to Ashton Jeanty early and often, 13 carries for 52 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, with his best work to the right side.
  • Tony Pollard sets the tempo for the Titans — 44 yds a game on the ground at 4.5 a carry, finding room off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineLV -6.7
Market lineLV -1.5
Sim total42
Market total42.5
LV by 6.7 (76% to win) Projected total 42 pts Kirk Cousins ~255 pass yds (250+ 56%) Ashton Jeanty ~52 rush yds (70+ 22%) Tre Tucker ~81 rec yds, 6.6 rec (70+ 56%)