TEN @ NYG Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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TEN Titans
18
PROJECTION
Week 3 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
TEN52%18
NYG48%20
20
NYG Giants
BET VALUE
MARKET NYG -3 · O/U 45.5

Projected Team Stats

TEN
NYG
52% Win Probability 48%
313 Total Yards 303
223 Passing Yards 202
90 Rushing Yards 100
2.5 Sacks 4.1
1.6 Turnovers 0.9

Projected Leaders

TEN
PASS Cam Ward248 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Tony Pollard49 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Carnell Tate5.6 rec, 84 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Wan'Dale Robinson4.0 rec, 52 yds, 0.2 TD
NYG
PASS Jaxson Dart211 pass yds, 1.3 TD
RUSH Cam Skattebo52 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Malik Nabers5.6 rec, 86 yds, 0.6 TD
REC Darius Slayton2.8 rec, 36 yds, 0.2 TD

Giants by 1.5

Giants are the pick here, favoured by 1.5 and winning 48% of 50 sims (projected 20-18).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Abdul Carter (Giants) vs Dan Moore Jr. (Titans) - winner: Abdul Carter, winning 57% of reps for 2.0 sacks and 4.2 pressures a game - constant heat on the quarterback.
  • Darius Slayton (Giants) vs Alontae Taylor (Titans) - winner: Alontae Taylor, holding him to 23 yds on just 39% open, 0.4 INT a game, - a read taken away.
  • Carnell Tate (Titans) vs Paulson Adebo (Giants) - winner: Carnell Tate, open on 61% of routes for 6.0/9.2, 61 yds a game - open at will.
In the Trenches
  • The Titans' line should hold up: the Giants win just 51% of their reps, mustering 7.6 sacks and 30.6 pressures a game (Brian Burns (4.0 sacks, 9.7 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Giants' quarterback should have time; the Titans win just 49% of reps for 5.1 sacks a game, led by John Franklin-Myers (1.7 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • The Giants will live and die with Malik Nabers, who comes open 50% of the time (62 yds a game).
  • Expect the Titans to feed Carnell Tate: 6.0 catches for 61 yds a game, open 61% of the time.
  • Joshua Williams (Titans) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 34% of routes, adding 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • Cam Skattebo carries the load for the Giants, 13 carries for 52 yds a game at 4.1 a carry, finding room off the right edge.
  • The Titans' run game leans on Tony Pollard — 12 carries, 49 yds a game (4.2 a carry), with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

Sim lineNYG -1.5
Market lineNYG -3
Sim total38
Market total45.5
NYG by 1.5 (48% to win) Projected total 38 pts Cam Ward ~248 pass yds (250+ 54%) Cam Skattebo ~52 rush yds (70+ 24%) Malik Nabers ~86 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 62%)