WAS @ ARZ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
WAS Commanders
20
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
WAS32%20
ARZ68%25
25
ARZ Cardinals
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take ARZ +4.5 +10.2 pts
MARKET WAS -4.5 · O/U 47.5

Projected Team Stats

WAS
ARZ
32% Win Probability 68%
324 Total Yards 357
210 Passing Yards 252
114 Rushing Yards 104
3.4 Sacks 2.9
1.3 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels229 pass yds, 1.1 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt64 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Terry McLaurin4.8 rec, 76 yds, 0.3 TD
REC Antonio Williams3.6 rec, 43 yds, 0.1 TD
ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett263 pass yds, 1.4 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love66 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC Michael Wilson4.7 rec, 67 yds, 0.4 TD
REC Marvin Harrison Jr.4.8 rec, 66 yds, 0.2 TD

Cardinals by 5.7

Across 50 simulations, Cardinals come out on top 68% of the time by an average of 5.7 (25-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Jeremiyah Love, 9.4 yds a carry - consistent push behind him.
  • Trey McBride (Cardinals) vs Sonny Styles (Commanders) - winner: Trey McBride, open on 60% of routes for 5.2/6.0, 54 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • Don't expect much heat from the Cardinals — a 49% win rate yields only 5.8 sacks and 26.3 pressures a game, led by Josh Sweat (2.6 sacks, 7.8 pressures a game).
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Commanders — a 51% win rate, 6.3 sacks and 31.4 pressures a game — Odafe Oweh (3.5 sacks, 9.7 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
  • Expect the Cardinals to feed Marvin Harrison Jr.: 6.0 catches for 55 yds a game, open 56% of the time.
  • The Commanders lean on Terry McLaurin, good for 5.3 catches and 57 yds a game while breaking open on 58% of his routes.
On the Ground
  • Jeremiyah Love carries the load for the Cardinals, 7 carries for 66 yds a game at 9.4 a carry, churning off right tackle and keeping the sticks moving.
  • Jacory Croskey-Merritt sets the tempo for the Commanders — 64 yds a game on the ground at 4.5 a carry, finding room off right tackle.

Model vs Market

Sim lineARZ -5.7
Market lineWAS -4.5
Sim total45
Market total47.5
ARZ by 5.7 (68% to win) Projected total 45 pts Jacoby Brissett ~263 pass yds (250+ 56%) Jeremiyah Love ~66 rush yds (70+ 40%) Terry McLaurin ~76 rec yds, 4.8 rec (70+ 54%)