WAS @ ARZ Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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← Week 12 slate
WAS Commanders
20
PROJECTION
Week 12 50-sim average
WIN%PROJ
WAS46%20
ARZ54%21
21
ARZ Cardinals

Projected Team Stats

WAS
ARZ
46% Win Probability 54%
320 Total Yards 337
213 Passing Yards 273
107 Rushing Yards 65
2.0 Sacks 3.1
0.8 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels230 pass yds, 1.2 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt54 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Terry McLaurin4.2 rec, 62 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Antonio Williams3.7 rec, 47 yds, 0.3 TD
ARZ
PASS Jacoby Brissett281 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Jeremiyah Love25 rush yds
REC Michael Wilson8.5 rec, 108 yds, 0.5 TD
REC Trey McBride4.9 rec, 53 yds, 0.4 TD

Cardinals by 0.8

The model leans Cardinals by 0.8, winning 54% of 50 sims (projected 21-20).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Leo Chenal, holding him to 2.6 yds a carry - the front wins up front.
In the Trenches
  • The Cardinals may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 6.2 sacks a game — Josh Sweat (2.9 sacks, 8.7 pressures a game) out front.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Commanders — a 51% win rate yields only 4.5 sacks and 17.6 pressures a game, with Odafe Oweh (3.2 sacks, 7.5 pressures a game) setting the tone.
Through the Air
  • Michael Wilson is the engine of the Cardinals' passing game — 89 yds a game on 49% separation.
  • Terry McLaurin should find soft spots all day, open 51% of the time for 36 yds a game.
  • Receivers won't find much room against Amik Robertson (Commanders): 42% separation allowed — and 0.2 picks a game.
On the Ground
  • Expect a steady diet of Jeremiyah Love: 25 yds a game at 2.6 a carry for the Cardinals.
  • Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the workhorse for the Commanders, churning 54 yds a game at 4.2 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side.

Model vs Market

ARZ by 0.8 (54% to win) Projected total 41 pts Jacoby Brissett ~281 pass yds (250+ 66%) Jacory Croskey-Merritt ~54 rush yds (70+ 14%) Michael Wilson ~108 rec yds, 8.5 rec (70+ 84%)