WAS @ DAL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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WAS Commanders
15
PROJECTION
WAS 20 – DAL 37
Week 2 50-sim average Sun 20 Sep
WIN%PROJ FINAL
WAS22%15 20
DAL78%24 37
24
DAL Cowboys
✓ RESULT DAL by 17 model DAL by 8.6, off by 8.4
✓ SPREAD DAL -3.5 WIN line at publish DAL -3.5
✗ TOTAL 57 pts OVER O/U 50, model 39 lean under

Projected Team Stats

WAS
DAL
22% Win Probability 78%
269 Total Yards 391
194 Passing Yards 280
75 Rushing Yards 110
2.5 Sacks 3.1
1.1 Turnovers 1.2

Projected Leaders

WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels214 pass yds, 0.9 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt38 rush yds, 0.4 TD
REC Terry McLaurin4.1 rec, 59 yds, 0.1 TD
REC Stefon Diggs3.5 rec, 43 yds, 0.2 TD
DAL
PASS Dak Prescott284 pass yds, 1.8 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams59 rush yds, 0.5 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb6.0 rec, 83 yds, 0.6 TD
REC George Pickens4.3 rec, 66 yds, 0.4 TD

Cowboys by 8.6

The sim sides with Cowboys: a 8.6-point edge and a 78% win rate over 50 runs (24-15).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) - winner: Jalen Thompson, holding him to 2.9 yds a carry - bottled up between the tackles.
  • Kenny Clark (Cowboys) vs Nick Allegretti (Commanders) - winner: Kenny Clark, winning 55% of reps for 0.8 sacks and 4.2 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • George Pickens (Cowboys) vs Amik Robertson (Commanders) - winner: George Pickens, open on 66% of routes for 4.8/5.8, 50 yds a game - a problem the defense can't solve.
In the Trenches
  • The Cowboys may have to manufacture pressure, winning 50% up front for 5.9 sacks a game (Rashan Gary (2.4 sacks, 8.1 pressures a game) the one to watch).
  • The Commanders get stonewalled often up front, winning only 52% of reps (5.1 sacks a game), Odafe Oweh (3.2 sacks, 8.7 pressures a game) leading the way.
Through the Air
  • CeeDee Lamb is the go-to for the Cowboys, separating on 55% of routes for 65 yds a game.
  • Terry McLaurin is the go-to for the Commanders, separating on 52% of routes for 41 yds a game.
On the Ground
  • The Cowboys hand it to Javonte Williams early and often, 13 carries for 59 yds a game at 4.6 a carry, finding room to the right side.
  • Expect a steady diet of Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 38 yds a game at 2.9 a carry for the Commanders.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDAL -8.6
Market lineDAL -3.5
Sim total39
Market total50
DAL by 8.6 (78% to win) Projected total 39 pts Dak Prescott ~284 pass yds (250+ 70%) Javonte Williams ~59 rush yds (70+ 26%) CeeDee Lamb ~83 rec yds, 6.0 rec (70+ 64%)