WAS @ DAL Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION

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WAS Commanders
17
PROJECTION
Week 2 50-sim average
WIN%PTS
WAS12%17
DAL88%31
31
DAL Cowboys
BET VALUE
BEST BET Take DAL -4.5 +8.9 pts
MARKET DAL -4.5 · O/U 51.5

Projected Team Stats

WAS
DAL
12% Win Probability 88%
274 Total Yards 423
193 Passing Yards 281
81 Rushing Yards 142
2.1 Sacks 2.8
1.2 Turnovers 1.1

Projected Leaders

WAS
PASS Jayden Daniels212 pass yds, 1.0 TD
RUSH Jacory Croskey-Merritt42 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC Terry McLaurin4.6 rec, 64 yds, 0.2 TD
REC Luke McCaffrey2.8 rec, 42 yds, 0.2 TD
DAL
PASS Dak Prescott271 pass yds, 2.2 TD
RUSH Javonte Williams75 rush yds, 0.8 TD
REC CeeDee Lamb5.6 rec, 79 yds, 0.6 TD
REC George Pickens5.3 rec, 74 yds, 0.6 TD

Cowboys by 13.4

The model leans Cowboys by 13.4, winning 88% of 50 sims (projected 31-17).

Matchup Breakdown

How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulations
Keys to the Game
  • Odafe Oweh (Commanders) vs Terence Steele (Cowboys) - winner: Odafe Oweh, winning 58% of reps for 3.5 sacks and 9.5 pressures a game - too much juice for the blocker.
  • Javonte Williams (Cowboys) vs Leo Chenal (Commanders) - winner: Javonte Williams, 5.5 yds a carry - a problem for the front.
  • Kenny Clark (Cowboys) vs Nick Allegretti (Commanders) - winner: Kenny Clark, winning 56% of reps for 1.3 sacks and 4.2 pressures a game - he lives in the backfield.
  • CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) vs Trey Amos (Commanders) - winner: CeeDee Lamb, open on 62% of routes for 7.8/9.5, 71 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
  • George Pickens (Cowboys) vs Mike Sainristil (Commanders) - winner: George Pickens, open on 63% of routes for 5.8/6.9, 58 yds a game - a matchup to attack.
In the Trenches
  • Pressure could be scarce for the Cowboys — a 50% win rate, 5.2 sacks and 25.2 pressures a game, and Rashan Gary (1.9 sacks, 7.2 pressures a game) headlines it.
  • Don't expect much heat from the Commanders — a 52% win rate yields only 5.1 sacks and 23.4 pressures a game, led by Odafe Oweh (3.5 sacks, 9.5 pressures a game).
Through the Air
  • Through the air it is CeeDee Lamb's show for the Cowboys: 71 yds a game, open on 62% of routes.
  • The Commanders will live and die with Terry McLaurin, who comes open 59% of the time (44 yds a game).
  • Jalen Thompson (Cowboys) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 36% of routes, good for 0.0 INT a game.
On the Ground
  • The Cowboys lean on Javonte Williams, 14 carries for 75 yds a game at 5.5 a carry, with the holes opening to the right side.
  • On the ground, the Commanders ride Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 12 carries, 42 yds a game (3.5 a carry), finding room off the right edge.

Model vs Market

Sim lineDAL -13.4
Market lineDAL -4.5
Sim total48
Market total51.5
DAL by 13.4 (88% to win) Projected total 48 pts Dak Prescott ~271 pass yds (250+ 60%) Javonte Williams ~75 rush yds (70+ 56%) CeeDee Lamb ~79 rec yds, 5.6 rec (70+ 54%)