WAS @ JAX Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION
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WAS
WAS
JAX
WAS
Commanders
16
PROJECTION
| WIN% | PTS | |
|---|---|---|
| WAS | 26% | 16 |
| JAX | 74% | 26 |
26
JAX
Jaguars
BET VALUE
Lean JAX -3.5 +5.9 pts
MARKET
JAX -3.5 · O/U 48.5
Projected Team Stats
WASJAX
26%
Win Probability
74%
263
Total Yards
364
168
Passing Yards
258
94
Rushing Yards
106
2.3
Sacks
3.5
1.7
Turnovers
1.2
Projected Leaders
WAS
PASS
Jayden Daniels193 pass yds, 0.8 TD
Jayden Daniels193 pass yds, 0.8 TD
RUSH
Jacory Croskey-Merritt50 rush yds, 0.3 TD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt50 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Terry McLaurin4.2 rec, 55 yds, 0.2 TD
Terry McLaurin4.2 rec, 55 yds, 0.2 TD
REC
Antonio Williams3.5 rec, 36 yds, 0.1 TD
Antonio Williams3.5 rec, 36 yds, 0.1 TD
JAX
PASS
Trevor Lawrence262 pass yds, 1.9 TD
Trevor Lawrence262 pass yds, 1.9 TD
RUSH
Bhayshul Tuten42 rush yds, 0.2 TD
Bhayshul Tuten42 rush yds, 0.2 TD
REC
Brian Thomas Jr.4.8 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
Brian Thomas Jr.4.8 rec, 73 yds, 0.4 TD
REC
Jakobi Meyers3.7 rec, 52 yds, 0.3 TD
Jakobi Meyers3.7 rec, 52 yds, 0.3 TD
Jaguars by 9.4
The model leans Jaguars by 9.4, winning 74% of 50 sims (projected 26-16).
Matchup Breakdown
How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulationsIn the Trenches
- Don't expect much heat from the Jaguars — a 49% win rate yields only 6.5 sacks and 24.1 pressures a game, Josh Hines-Allen (4.2 sacks, 7.9 pressures a game) leading the way.
- The Commanders may have to manufacture pressure, winning 51% up front for 4.6 sacks a game — Odafe Oweh (3.2 sacks, 7.0 pressures a game) out front.
Through the Air
- Brian Thomas Jr. is the go-to for the Jaguars, separating on 53% of routes for 58 yds a game.
- Expect the Commanders to feed Terry McLaurin: 4.9 catches for 40 yds a game, open 54% of the time.
- Foyesade Oluokun (Jaguars) is a problem in coverage, holding his man open on just 35% of routes, good for 0.1 INT a game.
On the Ground
- Bhayshul Tuten is the workhorse for the Jaguars, churning 42 yds a game at 3.8 a carry, with the holes opening off the right edge.
- The Commanders lean on Jacory Croskey-Merritt, 14 carries for 50 yds a game at 3.6 a carry, churning off right tackle.
Model vs Market
Sim lineJAX -9.4
Market lineJAX -3.5
Sim total42
Market total48.5
JAX by 9.4 (74% to win) Projected total 42 pts Trevor Lawrence ~262 pass yds (250+ 56%) Jacory Croskey-Merritt ~50 rush yds (70+ 18%) Brian Thomas Jr. ~73 rec yds, 4.8 rec (70+ 52%)