WAS @ JAX Preview GAME SIM PROJECTION
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WAS
WAS
JAX
WAS
Commanders
11
PROJECTION
| WIN% | PROJ | |
|---|---|---|
| WAS | 16% | 11 |
| JAX | 84% | 22 |
22
JAX
Jaguars
Projected Team Stats
WASJAX
16%
Win Probability
84%
220
Total Yards
364
148
Passing Yards
255
72
Rushing Yards
109
2.0
Sacks
3.3
1.0
Turnovers
1.2
Projected Leaders
WAS
PASS
Jayden Daniels171 pass yds, 0.6 TD
Jayden Daniels171 pass yds, 0.6 TD
RUSH
Jacory Croskey-Merritt35 rush yds, 0.1 TD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt35 rush yds, 0.1 TD
REC
Terry McLaurin4.0 rec, 52 yds, 0.3 TD
Terry McLaurin4.0 rec, 52 yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Antonio Williams2.9 rec, 32 yds, 0.1 TD
Antonio Williams2.9 rec, 32 yds, 0.1 TD
JAX
PASS
Trevor Lawrence253 pass yds, 1.6 TD
Trevor Lawrence253 pass yds, 1.6 TD
RUSH
Bhayshul Tuten57 rush yds, 0.3 TD
Bhayshul Tuten57 rush yds, 0.3 TD
REC
Parker Washington5.4 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD
Parker Washington5.4 rec, 82 yds, 0.5 TD
REC
Jakobi Meyers4.6 rec, 62 yds, 0.4 TD
Jakobi Meyers4.6 rec, 62 yds, 0.4 TD
Jaguars by 11.2
The sim sides with Jaguars: a 11.2-point edge and a 84% win rate over 50 runs (22-11).
Matchup Breakdown
How the model sees it unfold — the matchups that decide the game, from 50 simulationsKeys to the Game
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) vs Foyesade Oluokun (Jaguars) - winner: Foyesade Oluokun, holding him to 2.8 yds a carry - stuffed at the line.
- Parker Washington (Jaguars) vs Rasul Douglas (Commanders) - winner: Parker Washington, open on 62% of routes for 7.1/8.7, 74 yds a game - a mismatch to exploit.
In the Trenches
- The Commanders' quarterback should have time; the Jaguars win just 50% of reps for 6.5 sacks a game, led by Josh Hines-Allen (3.6 sacks, 8.6 pressures a game).
- The Jaguars' line should hold up: the Commanders win just 51% of their reps, mustering 4.2 sacks and 17.4 pressures a game, and Odafe Oweh (2.8 sacks, 6.5 pressures a game) headlines it.
Through the Air
- Through the air it is Parker Washington's show for the Jaguars: 74 yds a game, open on 62% of routes.
- Through the air it is Terry McLaurin's show for the Commanders: 30 yds a game, open on 52% of routes.
- On the back end, Ventrell Miller (Jaguars) blankets his man, surrendering separation on just 30% of routes, adding 0.2 INT a game.
On the Ground
- The Jaguars lean on Bhayshul Tuten, 15 carries for 57 yds a game at 3.9 a carry, with his best work off right tackle.
- The Commanders' run game leans on Jacory Croskey-Merritt — 12 carries, 35 yds a game (2.8 a carry) into a stout front.
Model vs Market
JAX by 11.2 (84% to win) Projected total 33 pts Trevor Lawrence ~253 pass yds (250+ 52%) Bhayshul Tuten ~57 rush yds (70+ 24%) Parker Washington ~82 rec yds, 5.4 rec (70+ 60%)